Ramadan: The Unembraceable Trump

By David Ramadan

President Trump claims Republicans who lost their elections lost because they spurned his “embrace.” Yet a closer look reveals that some of the President’s biggest allies — or at least those that wanted to be — were also rejected by voters, and that should send off alarm signals about Trump and his 2020 role.

For instance, in deep red Kansas, Trump ally Kris Kobach won just 43 percent in a state that Trump won by 21 points. Trump was an early supporter of Kobach’s whose endorsement likely fueled his upset of the incumbent Republican governor. While that carried weight in the primary, general election voters didn’t buy Kobach’s Trump-esque anti-immigration stance. Kobach got a lower percentage of the vote than most of the House members who lost their seats in far more difficult blue and purple districts.

In South Carolina, Trump’s infamous late support for House candidate Katie Arrington cost Rep. Mark Sanford his job. Despite Sanford’s past troubles of his own, he won his last election by 25 points. Yet Arrington, who declared that “we are the party of President Donald J. Trump,” failed to hold the seat, losing by four points in a district Trump won by 13. Trump Jr. came in for a big rally for Arrington for double the toxic Trump embrace.

New York Rep. Claudia Tenney, who hosted Trump for a rally and a fundraiser, is now looking for work after losing her deep red district that Trump had carried by 16 points just two years ago. Again,  Trump’s embrace failed to move voters.

One of President Trump’s most notable victories during his election was Pennsylvania. To build on that success, Trump hand-picked Pennsylvania Rep. Lou Barletta, one of his earliest supporters, to run for U.S. Senate against “Sleepy Bob” Casey (Trump’s nickname for Senator Bob Casey). The race was never close, and Barletta lost by 13 points as Republicans lost three House seats.

Locally in Virginia, Rep. Dave Brat, a Trump favorite and a member of the Freedom Caucus, managed to gain the President strong support — “a powerful vote for MAGA … Dave has my Total Endorsement” the President announced — and millions of “establishment money” from Speaker Ryan’s PAC.

Trump won Brat’s district by seven points, and Republican Ed Gillespie carried it in the Virginia Governor’s race. So no problem for Brat, right? Well, he’ll also be unemployed as he was handily beaten by an anti-Trump Democrat.

Of course, Trump’s Virginia predictions haven’t been so good either. When controversial Prince William County Board Chairman Corey Stewart, a Trump sycophant, won a divisive Republican primary by fashioning himself as “more Trump than Trump,”  the President tweeted, “Don’t underestimate Corey, a major chance of winning!”

Another Trump tweet said, “Congratulations to Corey Stewart for his great victory for Senator from Virginia. Now he runs against a total stiff, Tim Kaine, who is weak on crime and borders, and wants to raise your taxes through the roof. Don’t underestimate Corey, a major chance of winning!”

Stewart’s “major” chance at winning turned into an 18-point loss.

And finally, California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a strong Trump supporter known for liking Russians as much as Trump, lost his Orange County seat that he held for 15 terms in Reagan country by six points. Rohrabacher was the only Republican in Orange County to truly go all in for the Trump embrace, and he lost by a bigger margin than most of the six others who lost their seats – leaving Orange County without any Republicans in Congress for the first time in decades.

The embrace was particularly toxic for Republican women who have seen their ranks in the House of Representatives decimated in the age of Trump – from 23 to 12.  Suburban women in blue, purple, or slightly red districts even voted out Republican women like Rep. Mimi Walters and Northern Virginia’s Barbara Comstock to give Democrats a check and balance on Trump.

So, when Trump taunted Rep. Mia Love and other Republicans for not embracing him, one must wonder.  Should they have been more like Kris Kobach,  David Brat, or Katie Arrington?

In 2016 Trump had the shortest coattails of any presidential winner in over 50 years, running ahead of just 24 of 241 Republicans. In 2018 he was an albatross in both swing districts and deep red districts because people — particularly women —wanted a check and balance on the President and voted accordingly.

It turns out that Trump’s embrace is more like a fatal chokehold.

Of course, Trump will point to successes in the Senate where Republicans gained seats. They also had the most favorable map for a single party in a generation.

The President’s 2020 reelection will depend on more than just those states where Republican Senate candidates were successful. Perhaps 2018 should be a warning sign for Republicans that being the party of Trump means shedding voters.

David Ramadan is an adjunct professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates from 2012 to 2016.