The Key That Could Unlock Medicaid Expansion in Virginia

Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is confident Virginia legislators will give him a budget that includes Medicaid expansion.

In his monthly interview on Richmond’s WRVA, Northam said Medicaid expansion was the right thing to do, both from a business and a moral perspective.

But he also mentioned the real reason expansion, or something like it, gets done: politics.

“What legislators need to realize is that on Nov. 7 Virginia spoke,” Northam said.

“The great majority of Virginians came out and voted and one of the things they voted on was increasing access to health care in Virginia.”

Perhaps. Medicaid expansion may have motivated some voters in some races. But the biggest Democratic motivator in 2017 was Donald Trump.

Senate Republicans won’t test the anti-Trump vote’s potency until 2019.

That bit of insulation, and a firm belief they are right on the policy, makes them confident they can prevent Medicaid expansion again.

Many eyes are focused on Sen. Emmett Hanger, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, as the mostly likely Republican to break ranks.

His March constituent newsletter fed that speculation.

In it, Hanger said he was “very pleased to see” some of the House’s “rural conservative legislators” get behind “a somewhat limited Medicaid Expansion, with some Virginia specific requirements, in their House budget.”

Sounds like he’s ready to give, doesn’t it?

Except Hanger has a number of conditions that must be met before he’s ready to consider a bigger Medicaid program.

Hanger wants more stringent work requirements — more so than the House or the governor agreed to. He also wants recipients to have regular income verification and objects to the House’s funding mechanism: a new tax on hospitals.

Still, Hanger also said he “will stand with anyone willing to make bold moves to address the need because it impacts all of us, our budget, and my personal beliefs tell me it is the right thing to do.”

So he’s saying there’s still a chance?

A small chance, but not likely.

If Democrats truly believe Medicaid expansion is a potent political issue for them, they should focus on Republican incumbents in districts Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and Northam won in 2017.

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