Virginia: 50-50
[Update 12/20/17: What a difference a day makes. HOD-94 has now been declared a tie.]
Reports say recount flips results in HD94, Democrat down by 10 votes ahead by a single vote. If affirmed by court, #Virginia House split 50-50 https://t.co/ULqKWRQVzc pic.twitter.com/1HiLKPbcEu
— vpapupdates (@vpapupdates) December 19, 2017
On Tuesday it happened, the thing no Republican wanted to face. The recount of Newport News’ 94th House District where incumbent Republican Delegate David Yancey led by only 10 votes over his Democratic opponent, school board member Shelly Simonds, resulted in an upset.
The final result: Yancey lost by one vote. Or put another way, Shelly Simonds won by one vote.
The final tally: 11,608 votes to 11,607 votes.
One vote.
The power of one vote had changed the balance of power in Virginia. It was the one vote heard round the Commonwealth. It was the one vote that yanked the rug from under the overwhelming Republican House majority that was in place when voters went to the polls on November 7, and disappeared later that night.
That one vote has left the House evenly split 50-50. Eighteen years of GOP majority, gone.
The losses occurred for Republicans with the top three spots — governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general — as Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie lost by nine percent to Democrat Ralph Northam, a huge gap despite Gillespie’s turnout of the second most votes ever for governor. Dr. Northam, however, garnered more.
But not only did Republicans lose the top three spots, they also lost 16 House of Delegate seats in a Democratic wave that caught RPV leadership and delegates by surprise. Anger over Donald Trump’s election in November 2016 resulted in the rise of Democratic candidates and a grassroots that was fired up and led by women. Indeed, 12 of the House seats went to women.
Democrats running for #VaHouse this year raised small-dollar donations in a big way | Our latest series of visualizations dives into the growth and impact of small donations at https://t.co/wpqGgjcY0M pic.twitter.com/8pbJlEFqhl
— vpapupdates (@vpapupdates) December 19, 2017
Anyone with an ear outside the GOP bubble knew Democrats were recruiting, meeting, and working feverishly to turn out their voters. Remember the pink hat marches in January that were seen around the world as millions of women marched? The energy didn’t stop that day. The results are playing out in election after election.
Tuesday afternoon the reality of the situation hit home when Republican leaders Kirk Cox, Todd Gilbert, Tim Hugo, and Nick Rush issued the following statement:
“After a close recount it appears the citizens of the 94th District have elected Shelly Simonds to the Virginia House of Delegates, pending confirmation by a three judge panel. We congratulate Delegate-elect Simonds and welcome her to this historic body. We also thank Delegate David Yancey for his distinguished service.”
There is still a slight chance for Democrats to see the majority shift to their side of the aisle depending on what happens with the voting irregularities of the 28th District where some voters were issued ballots for the wrong district, a case that could land in federal court. Worse case scenario would be if a federal judge issued an injunction prohibiting Republican Bob Thomas from being seated. That would cause the balance of power to shift 50-49, giving Democrats the win and the ability to elect the Speaker and stack the committees for the duration of the 2018 session.
As things stand now, Republicans and Democrats will share power in the House for the first time since 1998 which means committees will be held by co-chairmen, one Republican and one Democrat. Republicans had chosen Delegate Kirk Cox to become the new Speaker following the retirement of Bill Howell but all that is now up in the air. With shared power, legislation can become deadlocked with no way to break tie votes.
And yet no change in leadership at RPV’s headquarters in downtown Richmond is expected. The recent Republican Advance at The Homestead was absent many Old Guard and mainstream Republicans while the Trump wing of the party that showed up, and state central committee, did nothing to suggest removal of Chairman John Whitbeck and his executive director John Findlay despite losing 19 nominee races.
With RPV’s November losses, and a ruby red Alabama flipping a U.S. Senate seat from Republican to Democrat for the first time in 25 years, analysts see harbingers of things to come for the GOP. Democrats have energized black voters, young voters, and women. Indeed, One-Vote Wonder Shelly Simonds said in a live interview Wednesday morning on MSNBC that she was amazed at the sheer numbers of young voters who turned out for her, noting that at least half were under the age of 40.
Trump has been described as the rocket fuel for Democrats, their most motivating factor for getting voters to the polls. Virginia and Alabama are the first two waves of a tsunami that is likely heading to the national GOP in 2018. Those standing with the president risk the chance of being swept out in that wave.
Meanwhile, a judge is scheduled to certify the recount results on Wednesday. Virginia’s General Assembly will convene in Richmond on January 10, 2018.
