Three Election Eve Polls for Gillespie, Vogel, Adams

On election eve the final polls are rolling in for Virginia’s statewide races. Real Clear Politics has three new polls, the last round before election day and posted here for those who want to dig deeper into the crosstabs at the links.

Bottom line: this continues to show every indication of being a very close election meaning voter turnout is key.

Trafalgar Group: Ralph Northam (D): 49%, Ed Gillespie (R): 48%

NY Times/Siena College Poll: Northam: 43%, Gillespie: 40%

Emerson: Northam: 49%, Gillespie: 46%

Election day is tomorrow, November 7.

  • Virginia Freedom

    … and others show Northam with a more decisive lead. It would have to be a shocking upset for Gillespie to win tomorrow.

  • Randall Wenger

    Hey, it happened with Trump. … of course, he took a stand for something.

  • Lawrence Wood

    I believe this is now (24hrs. out) an “error of margin” race with a large proviso that the Democratic voting base is in some clear disarray nationally (possibly including here in Virginia) after Donna Brazile’s claim that Hillary Clinton’s campaign bankrolled the Democratic National Committee potentially rigging the presidential nomination against Sanders, Northam’s flip/flopping over the sanctuary city issue and the outrageous Latino Victory Project political ad that even turned off some Democrats.

    Will this have enough negative impact on Dem turnout for Northam to be seriously impacted (we are only possibly talking 2-3 points here to swing the race considerably). On the surface of it the lucky stars really couldn’t be lining up more favorably in a close contest then they are in this last week for Gillespie. I don’t buy it’s because of the candidates “sharpening their attacks” but rather just political serendipity for Gillespie, the political fates have greatly just rolled to his advantage (it happens). With the stars all aligning for him if he can’t close this one out, well that is that, in my opinion. The internet bots have been out on the web in full force working overtime the past few days regarding this race so gauging how this will fall is even more questionable.

    If the Trump Republican vote turns out for Gillespie in it’s normal previous state numbers he should be alright, if not, because they aren’t buying Ed’s less the stellar performance as a supporter of the president and his administration and choose to stay at home then the reality may shift. Interestingly enough Northam is facing a similar question regarding turnout from the Sander’s Democratic base in much choppier political waters. So most political pundits are calling this a “dead heat” sort of the wimps way out! Not being a pundit and crawling out on what clearly feels like a long limb to me I’d predict Gillispie for the win by less the 2% points.

    • Virginia Freedom

      The overwhelming majority of the Democrat base in this state doesn’t give a rat’s patoot about Donna Brazile’s book, whatever impact it might have on the 0.5% of the population which is obsessed with intra-party Democratic politics. Trump is horribly unpopular in this state (which, you’ll recall, he lost badly last year), and that fact alone will drive millions to the polls tomorrow, leading to an easy victory for Northam.

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