More Polls On Last Day Before Virginia Gubernatorial Race

I can’t keep up! Real Clear Politics is rolling in polls that have come out on election eve as Virginians prepare to go to the polls to vote for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

This morning we posted four previous polls here and here. Now, in the closing hours of Election 2017, are more.


Ed Gillespie (R): 42 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 51 percent
Cliff Hyra (L): 3 percent

This poll seems to be an outliar in the cluster of polls that point to this race being extremely close but it shows momentum moving in Ed’s direction because the same poll, taken on October 30, showed Northam with 53 percent and Gillespie with 36 percent. The poll noted:

Non-white likely voters back the Democrat 71 – 20 percent, with 4 percent for Hyra. White voters back the Republican 50 – 44 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Women back Northam 61- 33 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra. Men back Gillespie 52 – 40 percent, with 5 percent for Hyra. Independent voters are divided with 46 percent for Northam, 42 percent for Gillespie and 6 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 96 – 3 percent, with less than 1 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 – 5 percent, with less than 2 percent for Hyra.

“Republican Ed Gillespie is closing Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s lead, but Gillespie still has a ways to go and only 24 hours to get there,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “A good sign for Gillespie is that in the last two weeks he has cut Lt Gov. Northam’s 14-point lead among independents, the key bloc of voters, to a statistical tie. But any hopes that the Republicans have for victory will require their candidate to accomplish the Herculean task of making up a deep, 28-point deficit among women.”

The Polling Company is back with movement in Northam’s direction:

Ed Gillespie (R): 46 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 47 percent

Three days ago The Polling Company had Gillespie up by three points.

Fox News has a new poll:

Ed Gillespie (R): 43 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 48 percent

Fox made these points:

Nearly all Northam (94 percent) and Gillespie supporters (91 percent) are certain of their vote choice and both candidates receive strong backing from their party faithful (93 percent of Democrats and 91 percent of Republicans respectively).

Independents are a mixed bag, as nearly one-third favors the Democrat, one-third backs the Republican, and another one-third backs the libertarian or is undecided.

Northam is favored by blacks by 79 points (86-7 percent), moderates by 32 (55-23), voters with graduate degrees by 30 (61-31), women by 20 (56-36), and those with a college degree by 18 (54-36).

Monmouth is also out with a new poll:

Ed Gillespie (R): 45 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 47 percent
Cliff Hyra (L): 3 percent
Undecided: 5 percent

On October 17 they had the race with a one point difference between Gillespie and Northam.

Gravis Poll. I just found this one that came out over the weekend:

Ed Gillespie (R): 43 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 48 percent

Click on the links to study the crosstabs and dig deeper. You guys are all better at this than I so dive in and analyze to your hearts’ delight.

Polls will be open tomorrow, Tuesday, November 7, from 6:00am until 7:00pm.