Roanoke College Poll Shows Democrats in Lead; Northam 50%, Gillespie 44%

Roanoke College’s new poll, the second one released on Tuesday, shows Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ralph Northam leading Republican Ed Gillespie by six percentage points (50%-44%). The findings were:

Ed Gillespie (R): 44 percent
Ralph Northam (D): 50 percent
Cliff Hyra (L): 2 percent
Undecided: 4 percent
Margin of error: +4 percent

The poll also surveyed the running mates.

Lieutenant Governor:

Jill Vogel (R): 42 percent
Justin Fairfax (D): 45 percent

Attorney General:

John Adams: 42 percent
Mark Herring: 47 percent

The most important issues for voters continue to be the economy — jobs — and health care.

With groups of voters, the poll found:

Among two important groups, Northam leads among ideological moderates (61%-28%), and holds an insignificant lead among political Independents (45%-42%). Northam has the support of 94 percent of Democrats, while Gillespie is supported by 93 percent of Republicans. Liberals favor Northam (89%-3%) while Conservatives prefer Gillespie (81%-15%).

On the national level, the Roanoke College poll looks at President Donald Trump and the direction the country is going:

More than half of those polled (58%) disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job, and just over one-third (35%) approve, which is statistically unchanged since September. At the same time, a majority (56%) of respondents have an unfavorable view of him, while 34 percent have a favorable impression of Trump.

A majority (64%) of Virginians think the country is on the wrong track, while 30 percent think it is headed in the right direction. Congressional job approval sits at 10 percent.

As far as Virginia, more voters felt the Commonwealth was on the right track:

A plurality of likely voters (48%) think that Virginia is heading in the right direction, while 40 percent think it has gotten off on the wrong track. Almost half (48%) approve of the job Terry McAuliffe is doing as governor, while 35 percent disapprove. Governor McAuliffe is viewed favorably by 41% of respondents.

Questions to voters about the Republican and Democratic parties showed dissatisfaction with both:

The Republican Party is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent of likely voters (36% favorable), while the Democratic Party is seen favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 41 percent. Respondents were also asked if they associated various words with the parties. The results can be seen below.

How does the party make you feel?

Democratic Party

Frustrated: 30 percent
Angry: 18 percent
Afraid: 14 percent
Hopeful: 18 percent
Enthusiastic: 9 percent
Proud: 10 percent

Republican Party

Frustrated: 31 percent
Angry: 21 percent
Afraid: 17 percent
Hopeful: 14 percent
Enthusiastic: 6 percent
Proud: 9 percent

Respondents who said they felt frustrated, angry or afraid were asked a follow-up question. Among those who expressed a negative association with the Republican Party, 60 percent said the party’s policies are so misguided that they threaten the nation’s well-being. The Democratic Party fared only marginally better at 54 percent.

You can dig deeper into the Roanoke College poll here.

Election Day is November 7.

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