We’re All Unpersuadable Voters Now

With only five weeks until election day, all campaigns are in full swing. But according to a new study, the ability to get voters’ attention diminishes over time. And voters aren’t too open to changing their votes:

It’s the time of year when the statewide candidates start clogging mailboxes with fliers, the airwaves with ads and social media with “gotchas.”

The aim is simple: They want to influence you to vote for them.

None of it may matter.

According to a new paper from David Broockman of Stanford University and Joshua Kalla of the University of California Berkeley, some of the tools campaigns have used to reach, convince and motivate voters probably don’t work.

“Our best estimate of the direct effects of campaign contact on Americans’ candidate choices in general elections is essentially zero,” they write. “Our findings throw cold water on the notion that it is easy, overall, for campaigns to persuade voters.”

Not that it’s impossible to persuade voters. But doing so, Broockman and Kalla argue, requires campaigns to get creative with their outreach and to rigorously test the results. That requires investment and a willingness to take a few chances.

The authors also note that campaigns “should not be fooled by data collected early on in an election that suggests they can persuade meaningful numbers of voters.”

Keep reading here.