Kaine and Warner Help Their Party by Accident With Gorsuch Filibuster
As I write this, the Senate in the process of ending the filibuster – i.e., ensuring debate never ends – on nominations to the Supreme Court after 44 Democratic Senators (including Tim Kaine and Mark Warner) insisted on filibustering Neil Gorsuch’s nomination in order to prevent a confirmation vote.
By forcing the end of the nomination filibuster, Virginia’s two Senators were largely appeasing their base, as Jim Geraghty noted. For most Democrats in Washington, losing the filibuster means it’s much easier for President Trump and the Republican majority to appoint Justices, but the activists are certain voters will rise up in fury at Senate Republicans for changing the rules (and blocking Merrick Garland’s nomination last year).
Personally, I think that’s rubbish, but I do think Democrats are helped by the judicial filibuster’s demise. I just have a different reason, the very reason Washington Democrats fear: it ensures Trump can fill any Supreme Court vacancy so long as the GOP holds the Senate (which I think they will) in 2018.
Those of us who want Trump defeated for re-election will be more energized, more focused, and more united (relatively speaking) than those looking to re-elect him – at least that’s the assumption. However, a similar assumption was made about Democrats in 2016 after Trump was nominated. I humbly submit the vacancy left by Antonin Scalia turned that assumption on its head. Every self-described Republican in February 2016 suddenly had a reason to support the GOP ticket no matter who was on it. That wasn’t enough for me – which in part is why I left the party – but it was enough to firm up Republican voters nationwide – and especially in the swing states. Simply put, if Antonin Scalia were alive today, Hillary Clinton would be President of the United States.
Lest we forget, Donald Trump carried every single state where a Republican Senator was also elected, and none of the states that sent a Democrat to the Senate. Such a perfect Senate-president alignment had never happened in the century-long era of popularly elected Senators until 2016.
The lesson is abundantly clear to Democrats willing to acknowledge it: A Supreme Court vacancy in 2020 will wipe out – and possibly even reverse – any advantage Democrats have over Republicans in terms of party unity or of voter turnout.
As someone who does not want Trump re-elected, I’d prefer a full Court in 2020. Removing the filibuster makes that easier. As such, the Democrats who forced the GOP to end the judicial filibuster – including Kaine and Warner – did their party a service today. They just probably don’t understand – or would even want to understand – why.
