A poll commissioned by opponents of the proposed Fairfax meals tax finds that the tax would lose by a 60-26 margin on Election Day. From the Fairfax Families Against the Food Tax [1] presser:
Findings from a recent survey demonstrate a majority opposition to the proposed Fairfax County “meals tax.” By a 60 percent to 26 percent margin, voters would vote “No” on the meals tax if the vote were held today. The survey asked 450 likely Fairfax County voters about the November 8th ballot question that proposes adding a four percent (4%) tax to all prepared and ready-to-eat foods. The increase would be in addition to the existing six percent (6%) sales tax, bringing the total tax to ten percent (10%) on qualifying items. The survey was conducted by Mason Strategies, LLC on August 1-4, 2016 for the Fairfax Families Against the Food Tax, a broad coalition of businesses and individuals opposed to the meals tax.
To be fair, it is a poll commissioned by one side of the debate, but not even that can explain a 34% gap. When one adds the usual assumption that undecided voters are more likely to vote for the status quo on referenda, it’s even more likely that Fairfax voters will refuse the tax hike.
Given that Fairfax will likely help deliver the Commonwealth to the Clinton/Kaine ticket, the above poll result will surprise many. It shouldn’t.
Fairfax, Virginia, and the Republican Party have undergone serious transformations since Jim Gilmore led a GOP-ticket sweep of the county – and the state as a whole – in 1997 on the issue eliminating the personal property tax on cars (hose of us longer in the tooth can still remember “No Car Tax” as a rallying cry). The county and state have seen demographic and economic change, while the party drifted away from limited government and from lower taxes to its present status as the Party of Big Government for White People.
Yet despite this changes, the Northern Virginia county’s evolution into a Democratic stronghold hasn’t come with a newfound love of tax hikes. Some would argue (well, ok, I would argue) that the GOP’s legislative carnage in 2007 came directly from the tax increases in HB3202. Indeed, between 1997 and today, only one Republican nominee for Governor firmly and consistently promised not to raise taxes: Bob McDonnell (yes, really, that Bob McDonnell). He is also the only Virginia Republican to defeat a Democrat in Fairfax County as a whole since the Gilmore sweep.
Fairfax voters appear ready to show their elected officials – again – that they are not as fond of higher taxes as said officials think. Who knows? One day Virginia might even have a political party that recognizes this fact.