It’s summer, which means the Republican Party of Virginia is tearing itself apart over the primary versus convention argument again.
When it comes to an argument utterly lacking in self-awareness, the nomination argument always takes the cake. Even reaching for the deck-chairs-on-the-Titanic metaphor would be an insult to the descendants of the 700-odd survivors, who were at least intelligent enough to choose leaving the sinking ship over fighting for the wheel.
I will not bore you, dear reader, with the actual arguments for a primary or for a convention. I’ve been involved in those myself, when I was a Republican, and from outside the party I can acknowledge what those still in simply can’t – it’s far more about personal factionalism than anything else.
You want a primary because you want “data”? The campaigns that actually win gather their own data, and it’s far more extensive than any Election Board list of primary voters. Lust for Richmond primary lists all you want; just recognize that Jim Messina’s crew already has better data – for 2017.
You want a convention to energize the activists? How well did that work in 2013?
You think a primary will mean more electable candidates? Well then, now we come to the real fun…
The rumbling battle beneath the primary-convention fight (at least, this year) is between proponents and opponents of Ed Gillespie for Governor – at least that’s what most Republicans think. Backers of Gillespie and of Rob Wittman are convinced that their man would win their preferred nomination fight.
Except that all went up in flames with Virginia’s leader of the Trumpenproletariat – Corey Stewart – announced he was running for Governor.
Stewart – already elected four times in the third largest locality in the state – has name recognition, history in public office, and access to the Trump network (soon to be Trump Media [1]). He’ll be the heir to the 400,000+ Trump and Carson primary voters (more than twice what George Allen scored in the prior competitive Republican primary). Moreover, he’s seen what convention organizers have done to him – twice (2013 and this year).
There is no way Corey Stewart supporters on State Central will back a convention. They’ll give the “establishment” – such as it is – the primary it wants, and then watch primary voters stampede to nominate Corey for Governor and drag his friends (once he chooses them) across the finish line for the other nominations – all to the horror of said “establishment.”
Perhaps then – and only then, sadly – will it become clear that Trump is not a temporary phenomenon but a transformatove force which has ruined the Republican Party and made it no longer fit for purpose as a center-right major party. Of course, unless the Libertarians put forth a decent candidate, Virginia will have to suffer Governor Ralph Northam while conservatives and moderates finally get a clue and leave the RPV on the ash heap of history.
In the meantime, enjoy the Trumpsterfire. The next gasoline dump comes on Saturday.