Schapiro: RPV Infighting Reflects Electoral Dissent

There are few writers in Virginia with the personal brand of Jeff Schapiro, much less the scathing viewpoint that just revels in the fact that Virginia Republicans are in a disarray never before seen:

Once a model of discipline and organization, Virginia’s Republican apparatus is cracking up. The business class and suburban bloc that long supplied cash and votes has had its fill of dog-whistle politics, such as nativist appeals on immigration and an anti-spending mania that’s seen as an excuse to ignore schools and roads.

This rejection is not just fatigue. It’s because of demographic change.

There’s a lot of truth to that.  God, guns, and gays — the model of the 1990s — has given way to jobs, jobs, and jobs.

Apart from the 2009 McDonnell-led sweep, that coalition has failed to garner the interest of a majority of Virginia voters.  The divisions aren’t just felt at the top of the ticket, nor are they felt in the actual apparatus of the Republican Party writ large.

Congressional campaigns are feeling the strain as well — to wit, a tale of two districts, incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10) and challenger and State Senator Tom Garrett (VA-05):

In Northern Virginia, frosh Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock is refusing to support Trump. His hostility on immigrants threatens to blunt her overtures to the region’s fast-growing Asian and Hispanic communities.

That Comstock keeps her distance from Trump could compel Trump voters in her district’s rural reaches to keep their distance from her.

And in Southside Virginia, Republican Tom Garrett is running for an open seat that the GOP fears could slip away because of Garrett’s lagging fundraising and Trump’s nagging about immigrants.

The district includes the Charlottesville area, home of Khizr Khan, the Pakistan-born father of the University of Virginia-educated Muslim soldier killed in action in Iraq.

Khan gripped the Democratic National Convention with an address that reflected public fury over Trump’s anti-Muslim remarks. Trump later criticized the speech, triggering a backlash.

What’s interesting here to me is that Garrett — though behind — is sticking with the guerrilla campaign style that has served him well in the past.

What is more interesting are the demographics of both VA-05 and VA-04, where Henrico Sheriff Mike Wade is taking on State Senator Don McEachin in a seat vacated by Rep. Randy Forbes.  The 5th District leans R+4, the 4th District leans R+1.

Both districts are demographically similar in certain ways.  One way of note?  Trump is probably not a negative there, but a lift that should help both candidates.  In the 4th District, while some might assume Wade will have a more uphill battle among African-Americans, Wade’s background in law enforcement and community issues — particularly reducing recidivism rates and attending directly to mental health issues — gives Wade a personal touch where Garrett’s veteran background doesn’t have quite the same tactile appeal.

Schapiro also discusses the upcoming 2017 nomination contest, to be determined by RPV’s State Central Committee in late August.

Should Trump lose, the battle for the soul of the GOP will be on in a big way in what will remain a fractured and divided party.

To date, three candidates are announced for governor alone: Gillespie, Wittman, and Stewart.   Other names continue to prove to make things interesting (Pete Snyder among them).

Now here’s an interesting thought.

If SCC chooses a primary contest, a plurality (not a majority) will determine the nominee.  Does anyone really want yet another scenario where a white hot core of one-third of Virginia voters select the nominee?  How’s it working for us now?

On the other hand… a convention?  Whittles down the candidate to one candidate after a rigorous (if tedious) series of rounds of voting… one that could — could — promote a bit of healing with candidates endorsing one over the other, lifting the arm of the winner after the final vote, and emerging with a solid ticket — just like we did in 2009 and 2014.

Of course, there’s a way to shortcut this.  Proportional balloting — have everyone vote for their candidates in order of preference and then weight the preference… but that would require some healthy mathing by the convention committee of State Central to make it happen (and it’s not impractical — there ought to be an app for that, right)?

That’s all predicated on a degree of leadership coming from places where little is being shown now.  State Central members seem dissatisfied, fights are being picked that need not be, unit chairs are not getting lists on time, RNC Victory staffers are being poorly received by the rank-and-file, and to make matters go from bad to insult?  Clinton is pulling out of Battleground Virginia.

Perhaps it’s all a reflection of the climate.  Republicans are a dissatisfied bunch, and the Trump movement hasn’t exactly shifted out of the DNA that could win battles within the GOP but lose wars against the Clinton machine.

Case in point?  Rigell’s announced support for Libertarian Party nominee and former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was bad news compounded only by the fact that he openly resigned from his local unit committee.  Rigell won’t be the only Republican to make that choice in November, and open threats are the opposite medicine to stem that sort of bleeding.

Of course, a greater question remains.  In an environment where every disagreement rises to the level of hate speech, where disagreement on ideas turns into open hatred of personalities, where power trumps principles, and where the politics of exclusion and control manifest itself in forfeited election after forfeited election?  How do you fix this?

Short answer?  With more freedom.

Virginia Republicans ought to have the courage of our convictions to tolerate dissent.  We don’t have that today, and so long as we continue to attack every problem by drawing smaller circles, creating hostile environments for minorities, sacrifice principle for “winning”?

Rather, we should be how we can address these challenges with more freedom — whether it’s internal party squabbles or external policy fights — by rising to the courage of our convictions.  A big tent around certain principles that respect free minds, free markets, free ideas, and a free society?  That sees a person who agrees with our own ideas 80% of the time and doesn’t see a 20% heretic?  Who relishes the idea of being challenged to see the world a different way rather than treating our principles as a rigid ideological creed?

If we can’t start being adults, then we deserve to wander the wilderness for a long, long time.

The nation will be watching Virginia in 2017.  Voting up a convention at least gives us the stage to try to heal the wounds, and we should try — before temporary splits become permanent and lasting divisions.