Previewing the Likely Vice Presidential Contenders
With less than two weeks before the start of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland and three weeks until the Democrats meeting in Filthydelphia, this is normally the time of the year when our 24/7 news media starts talking about Vice Presidential picks all the time.
Except, of course, this year. Between Trump’s antics and Hillary’s legal issues, there’s been almost no time devoted to potential Vice Presidential picks. While everyone recognizes that the Veepstakes are about as exciting as watching paint dry – it is, after all, trying to figure out who will get the most useless job in government – it’s an interesting diversion until there’s a baseball game on TV.
Vice Presidential choices these days are less about geography and more about filling in the gaps in the Presidential nominees’ political biography. Given the fact that few Vice Presidential nominees ever bring their home states along with them when the state wouldn’t otherwise vote for the ticket (the last time a VP arguably carried a state was 1968, when Ed Muskie gave Hubert Humphrey Maine, which was then reliably Republican), the idea that choosing a VP based on electoral college strategy can be safely set aside as an antiquated strategy.
This year the field is more volatile, primarily because one of the nominees has no idea what he’s doing and is barely running a campaign, let alone a vetting process. So literally anything is possible. Here’s a rundown on the choices that both have been rumored to be mulling around – but only the ones that actually make sense, listed in order of likely selection.
Trump
Trump has teased his criteria for choosing a running mate, and – amazingly enough – they make sense. Given that he’s not a politician, has no experience in legislative or executive public office, and knows he doesn’t want to spend all of his time signing executive orders to govern instead of working with Congress, he’s made clear he wants a seasoned politician who understands the legislative process in Washington. Given the skepticism of much of the Republican establishment, choosing someone who can add credibility to his campaign with that demographic is clearly one of his top priorities.
One thing to note with Trump is that the traditional VP role, at least in the last few elections, has been as chief attack dog, allowing the nominee to focus on being positive and staying above the fray. Clearly, the opposite is going to be true this time around, as nobody can out-attack-dog Trump – it’s one of the few things he’s truly gifted at. This VP will need to provide the stability and policy acumen that Trump lacks.
Trump also has one problem that Clinton doesn’t have – his VP choices need to be people who would actually agree to run with him. That’s why some who might otherwise be solid choices, like Marco Rubio or John Kasich, aren’t going to make my list.
1.) Mike Pence – Mike Pence seems to be the ideal running mate for Donald Trump. He fits Trump’s requirements fully, as he was a six term House member and spent a term in the House Republican leadership as Conference Chair. He’s currently Governor of Indiana, which checks the box for executive experience. Before Congress, he was a radio show host. Pence was a budget hawk while in Congress, and served as Chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee. He was an early Tea Party supporter, but he’s also someone with enough bona fides to be acceptable to establishment Republicans as well. Trump met with him and his family over the July 4th weekend, and was another of the political figures Trump has praised recently, which has led to speculation about his VP candidacy. The biggest downside to Pence right now is that he’s running out of time – he’s running for re-election and Indiana law does not allow him to run for VP at the same time as Governor. If he were to get out, he would have to do so prior to July 15 to give the Indiana GOP a chance to put a replacement for him on the ballot.
2.) Newt Gingrich – It’s hard to believe that Newt is near the top of Trump’s VP list, but it’s true. An early Trump supporter, Newt’s experience as Speaker of the House fits Trump’s criteria of a veteran legislative hand. He’s a seasoned and skilled debater, and he invented the kind of love/hate relationship with the media that has become Trump’s hallmark. The two seem to get along well, and Trump has relied on Newt to act as a go between with Washington early in his campaign. The problem with Newt, besides the fact that he’s as completely unlikable as Trump, is that he reinforces the anti-women message that Hillary has already been using against Trump. His well publicized marital issues will be front and center. Trump can get as much from Newt as an advisor as he can on the ticket without the obvious downside.
3.) Mary Fallin – Fallin is the governor of Oklahoma and a two term House member, although her record in the House was not notable. She’s a Trump endorser from back in May and, unlike Susanna Martinez, she’s never had any qualms about supporting Trump. She’s also welcomed discussion of her as a VP candidate. She fits the desire for a female running mate to help take the edge off some of Clinton’s attacks on Trump’s relationship with women in general. At the same time, choosing a female VP nominee could easily be viewed as pandering, if the candidate turns out to be another Sarah Palin – and given the similarity in their names, you can guess where the attacks and the comparisons will be there.
4.) Chris Christie – Governor Christie was one of the first presidential candidates to drop out and throw his weight (pun intended) behind Trump. Christie’s benefits are his strength as a debater, and his style, which is similar to Trump’s but more grounded in traditional political sensitivities. He’s an attack dog who is blunt and has done well attacking Washington. As a former prosecutor, he can go after Hillary hard on national security and her email failings. At the same time, Christie’s downsides are considerable. He doesn’t provide much of a contrast with Trump, and the campaign doesn’t need two attack dogs. He’s still being dogged by scandal in New Jersey, and he’s extremely unpopular in his home state. He praised FBI Director Jim Comey, who he has worked with, which may take some of the starch out of whatever attacks he might make on Hillary’s email issues. Finally, he’s got no legislative experience and that is one of Trump’s core needs.
5.) Joni Ernst – Ernst is a first term Senator from Iowa. Her name first cropped up over the weekend as Trump tweeted praise and announced he was meeting with her. Unlike Fallin, she doesn’t have both executive and legislative experience, and she’s only a freshman Senator. She’s also relatively unknown, most famous for her campaign commercial where she talked about castrating pigs. She doesn’t appear to fit the profile as well as others, including Mary Fallin, so it’s unclear how closely she’s being vetted.
Clinton
Hillary Clinton’s running mate is more likely to be a traditional choice, with traditional reasoning behind it. Clinton’s legislative and executive experience are clear, so she has no gaps to fill in her resume. Instead, she needs a VP who will fill enthusiasm gaps as well as help add some likability to her campaign. This gives her a bit more flexibility in who she chooses, but at the same time it also makes a couple of names more obvious than others. Most importantly, though, she has to find a way to paper over the wounds caused by Bernie Sanders’ campaign, which fired up progressives and left Clinton damaged with core demographics, like millennials, that she must win to get elected.
1.) Tim Kaine – Tim Kaine is the most likely standard candidate to Clinton, and one she would likely choose if she didn’t have to worry about a progressive revolt. Those of us in Virginia know Tim Kaine as a popular former governor and current U.S. Senator. He’s got a relatively moderate track record, but he’s also been a team player with the Senate Democrats. He’s also started to move to the left on his biggest non-conforming Democratic issue – abortion. Over the last few weeks he has gone out of his way to play up abortion rights, even though he has touted his Catholic faith and anti-abortion stances in the past – going so far as saying on his campaign website in 2005 that “I have a faith-based opposition to abortion.” Most recently, he issued a very strong statement on the Supreme Court’s overturning of Texas abortion regulations which some observers think was carefully parsed to help make him more palatable to a nationwide Democratic audience. Kaine got lucky this week as well, with the Supreme Court overturning Bob McDonnell’s honest services fraud conviction over his acceptance of questionable gifts, given Kaine has been dinged for similar behavior that, while not rising to the same level as McDonnell’s, raised eyebrows (pun also intended). That Politico article is one of the most obvious indicators of the seriousness if Kaine’s vetting process. Getting a story like that in public prior to him being chosen is textbook Clinton-style press inoculation – get the story out early so when he’s chosen, it can be downplayed as old news. Kaine is probably Clinton’s most likely choice at this point.
2.) Elizabeth Warren – The first term Senator from Massachusetts is the biggest rising star in the Democratic Party and a progressive darling. She’s already been campaigning with Hillary and she is the logical choice to bring Bernie Sanders supporters back into the fold on the Clinton campaign – many of whom wished she and not Bernie had been the Clinton alternative. Her focus on economic policy provides a welcome compliment to Hillary’s foreign policy background. At the same time, as another strong woman Senator, she doesn’t differentiate herself much from Hillary in terms of demographic appeal (and don’t expect a big bump from Native Americans). Worse, at least as far as Hillary is concerned, she’s one of the few people in the party who could overshadow Hillary and the last thing any presidential nominee wants to hear is the dreaded “wow, she’s great – why isn’t she our nominee?” Despite being Democratic Party rock stars, Clinton and Warren have never served together, and Warren has no real connections to the Clinton machine.
3.) Julian Castro – Along with Labor Secretary Tom Perez, Julian Castro has been often touted as a potential VP pick. He keynoted the 2012 Democratic National Convention and is widely viewed as a rising star within the Party after being elected as the youngest city councilman in the history of Texas, and later as the youngest big city Mayor when he was elected Mayor of San Antonio. He currently serves as Housing and Urban Development Secretary in the Obama Administration. He would be the first Hispanic Vice Presidential nominee if selected and would be an obvious choice to attack Trump on his anti-immigrant policies. Castro’s grandmother was Mexican, who immigrated legally to live with family members after she was orphaned at age six in 1920. As with Kaine, his primary downside is that he’s relatively unknown, but his background and his service rank him in the top three of potential Hillary choices.
Johnson
When Johnson starts running an actual campaign, we’ll talk about him. When asked if Johnson had a statement on the FBI recommendations against Hillary, the campaign punted, as Jim noted in the comments to his article. That’s political malpractice, and clear evidence the Libertarians are phoning it in, as usual (and yes, I’m well aware that Johnson has already chosen former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld as his running mate – doesn’t change my opinion of the campaign).
Conclusion
So who are they going to pick? Nobody knows at this point, and these lists are surely missing names that are being vetted – and may even miss the eventually nominees chosen. One thing is certain – it’s going to be an interesting summer, no matter who gets chosen.
