UK Tory Leadership Candidate Pulls a Trump
It will probably surprise no one that today – 4 July – is not a holiday in the United Kingdom. As such, life goes on as normal “across the pond,” including political life. Oddly, that has also meant that, after a week and a half of wildly inaccurate attempts to link the UK EU Referendum to the Trump campaign, a connection has finally arisen, but not as expected and, of course, not in a good way for Trump or for his accidental acolyte in the UK.
This weekend’s Brit-Trump turned out to be none other than Theresa May: Home Secretary for six years, paragon of what is now the Conservative Party “establishment”, candidate to succeed David Cameron as party leader and PM, and former supporter of Remaining in the EU. It’s that last bit that has some Conservatives (not all, of course) concerned about her leadership bid. Her attempt to solve that has apparently been to pull a page out of the Trump playbook: namely, use the conventional caricature of the folks who are trying to convince, and play it to the hilt.
In Trump’s case, it was slanging ethnic Mexicans, talking about a wall, and discussing punishing women for having abortions (which has never been an actual pro-life position). For May, it was telling EU nationals in the UK that they could be sent back home once “Brexit” is achieved.
Among the many problems with that is this: leaders of the actual Brexit campaign (Vote Leave) have already ruled that out, leading to this painful analysis by Fraser Nelson of the Spectator, and himself a reluctant Leave backer (Note: “Hammond” refers to Phillip Hammond, Cabinet Minister and May supporter, including backing the notion of EU nationals’ potential deportation).
Hammond and May both campaigned against Brexit, and neither seem to understand it. They seem to believe the vile slurs that this was all about disliking immigrants, or wanting to boot people out. Why, do they think, Michael Gove and all other Vote Leave figures said that EU nationals could stay no matter what? It was for the good of Britain and to underline that this was about stemming immigration, not deportation.
“…neither seem to understand it. They seem to believe the vile slurs…”
Remind you of anyone, dear reader?
Of course, neither Trump nor the new students of his conservative-caricature strategy are likely to succeed. In both cases, they face more principled opponents who can get in their way. Here in the US, that’s the Libertarian Party (full disclosure: where I call my political home now), which may not be in a position to challenge or replace the Republicans yet, but is certainly able to provide a home for real backers of limited government, and prevent faux conservatives like Trump from getting anywhere near power. I would also give caution to backers of Ed Gillespie and Corey Stewart, who seem to think the best way their choices can avoid troubling questions about their past support for bank bailouts and local tax increases is to ignore all of that and shout Trump’s praises. We are listening, and we are not happy.
Across the pond, May will likely find herself hamstrung by the method the Tories choose to pick their leader. The Parliamentary Party (i.e., House of Commons caucus) will narrow the choices down to two. While May is all-but-certain to be one of them, she will likely face either Michael Gove or Andrea Leadsome (although we’ll know for certain by 12 July), both actual supporters of Leaving the EU, and both of whom have flatly rejected sending back any EU national already in the UK (Spectator). Leadsome, meanwhile, has stolen the march on May (and everyone else) by openly pledging to being the Brexit process (known as Article 50) as soon as she is elected (if she is), thus reminding Tory voters of her anti-EU credentials without scaring EU nationals or putting off their friends in the larger UK electorate.
Moreover, unlike our primaries (wher Trump could pull in low-information voters by the bushel), the Tory voter pool is already closed (due to the accelerated nature of the contest – a winner will be chosen in two months), and unlike UKIP backers or Labour Leavers, most Conservative voters are more concerned about the EU’s effect on domestic law and on taxation than the immigration issue. The folks most likely to back May’s scare campaign can’t vote for her, while Leadsome (or Gove) can appeal to the more cerebral Conservative Euroskeptics.
In short, if one is truly a wet (for the Tories) or a moderate (for Americans) on an issue, it’s best to just state one’s case. At the very least, one should do a better job examining the opposing arguments before trying to mimick them. Otherwise, one ends up with a badly divided and sullied political institution (the Republicans), or hoist by own’s own petard in a leadership battle (which I increasingly suspect is May’s fate now).
This holds true both in the original mother country and in the lands that ceased to be “the colonies” on this day in 1776. It will likely be proven true in both places this fall, with an added bonus of a third confirmation in the first “colony” come next November.
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