Prediction: Remain to Win Narrowly

This is the final installment of my pre-vote series on the British referendum to Leave or Remain in the European Union. Here are the first seven posts I have written about the vote. The referendum will be held tomorrow.

I have never thought Leave would be able to withstand the mass hysteria coming from London’s eite. I stand by that now. While I expect the vote tomorrow will be close, I also expect Remain to win.

Truth be told, the result will sadden me. Having seen Brussels’ behavior vis a vis the Mediterranean, I have come to the conclusion that the European Union is a profoundly anti-democratic force, one which has become so insular and sclerotic as to undermine – if not completely destroy – its own vision as a beacon of light for the world. Much as American Manifest Destiny of the 1840s curdled into Slavery Uber Alles in the 1850s, the cooperative EU of the 20th Century has devolved into a commanding yet incompetent mess.

That said, I must sadly conclude Project Fear has done the minimum required, but now more. Indeed, this won’t be the end of the convulsions in the UK. Prime Minister David Cameron has rent his party on this, and if things go as I suspect, the arguments will become country-wide, and about more than just the EU.

With that, here are my predictions:
England: Leave wins 52%
Wales: Remain wins 55%
Scotland: Remain wins 70%
Northern Ireland: Remain wins 55%
UK-wide result: Remain wins 51%

So far, the discussion about the regional breakdown has been centered on what happens in pre-Remain Scotland is taken out of the EU. Far less discussion has been held as to how England wouold react if it’s forced to Remain. At present, England has no parliament of its own, meaning it is directly ruled by Westminster, including Scottish and Northern Irish MPs who cast votes for policies that have no impact on their own constituents. I would expect that to change in the next few years.

Still, the more important matter will be the EU itself. Will it see this near-miss as a sign of the need for serious change? Or it will it simply brush it off and continue running rampant over national democracy in its bid for a trans-national superstate? I fear it will be the latter. Brussels has a very bad habit of ignoring the peoples of Europe. That won’t change.

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