Second Look Effect Comes to Remain’s Rescue

This is the eighth installment of my continuing yet irregular series on the British referendum to Leave or Remain in the European Union. Here are the first seven posts I have written so far. The referendum will be held on Thursday.

Whether it was the assassination of Jo Cox, or just the usual anxieties that come when the status quo looks like it will actually lose, the “second look effect” has pushed polling in the UK to a statistical tie on the EU referendum (Daily Mail via This is Money).

The pound and London stock market soared this morning after polls over the weekend showed a Remain vote was back in the lead ahead of the crucial EU referendum vote on Thursday.
As a result the pound shot up almost 2 per cent against the dollar to $1.4623, following some heavy losses last week.

…

The latest surveys, including a Survation poll for The Mail On Sunday, put Remain three points ahead, while according to betting odds compiled by Betfair the chances of the UK staying in the European Union have jumped back up to 72 per cent.

This should not be a surprise. The “second look effect” (my term) usually weakens poll numbers for challengers to the status quo – either in elections or referendums. Gallup had Mitt Romney five points ahead with nine days to go; within a week the margin was one point (although it should be noted that Gallup was so distraught by the difference between its last poll and the final result that it has refused to do “horse race” polling this year). Gerald Ford in 1976, George H. W. Bush in 1992, the UK Conservatives in the same year, and the Canadian Liberals in 2004 are probably the most dramatic examples second-look effect shifts.

Of course, only two of the beneficiaries managed to get ahead of their competitors. Carter and Clinton both withstood the effect. Leave has three days to do the same.

Is it possible? Certainly.

Should one bet that way?

I don’t think so.