This is the fourth installment of my continuing yet irregular series on the British referendum to Leave or Remain in the European Union. Here are the first [1] three [2] of them [3]. The referendum will be held on 23 June.
Last Friday, I noted that both Remain (via Prime Minister David Cameron) and Leave (via Justice Secretary Michael Gove – yes, they’re in th same cabinet) made their case to the British and Northern Irish people via hostile questioning from Faisal Islam and live studio audience members. At the time, I presumed the effect would be minimal. It didn’t take long for my near-perfect record of predictive error to be strengthened yet again.
As it turns out, the comparison was enough for Leave to take the lead in two new polls, and extend it (slightly) in ICM’s survey (Tom Goodenough [4], Spectator Coffee House). Clearly, this was the best week “Brexit” has had for quite a while.
For the Conservative Party, however, it’s a very different deal.
The weekend came with Gove and Boris Johnson (ex-Mayor of London) sending an open letter declaring, “The public cannot trust EU or government promises that we won’t be paying for eurozone bail-outs given the history and how we can be outvoted” (Telegraph [5]). You read that right, the Justice Secretary just told the people of the UK that the government of which he is a part can’t be trusted.
The third signatory of the letter – Labour MP Gisela Stuart – revealed both the existence and the nature of the Labour split on this matter (real, and far less public, respectively).
T-Minus 17 days to Referendum Day.