Oklahoma, Not OK

In 2012, the Virginia General Assembly – just recently returned to all-Republican control – passed the “ultrasound” bill, which succeeded in inflaming tensions and encasing partisan divisions in social-issue amber. How many children it actually saved, if any, remains a matter of dispute. It was, however, more than enough to make the Richmond Republicans (from Bob McDonnell on down) think the party was “unified” enough to enact the largest tax increase in four decades the very next year. Next thing we know, Ken Cuccinelli tries to oppose the tax increase by backing a smaller one (while claiming credit for making the McDonnell one constitutionally acceptable), 6% of the vote bleeds to the Libertarians, and Virginia has its first Governor not elected by a majority of voters since 1965.

It was also the third Republican-backed tax increase imposed on Virginians in nine years.

It appears that Oklahoma has learned the wrong lesson – namely, don’t wait a year.

On Thursday (Outside the Beltway) . . .

Oklahoma’s Republican legislature passed a bill that would make it a felony for physicians to perform an abortion, a move that even some on the pro-life side of the argument are arguing is largely a waste of time given that it is likely to be declared unconstitutional.

Never mind that the law will almost certainly be wiped out by the courts – even the undermanned Supreme Court has at least five justices ready and willing to strike this down. Never mind that the incentives and the concentration of cost (two problems that have plagued the pro-life movement for decades) were left completely unchanged (is it really so hard to consider expanding child support mandates too include pre-natal cost and lost wages?). This was symbolism and signaling of the first order.

Usually, when something like this happens (especially south of the Potomac or the old Missouri Compromise line), Republicans are trying to distract their own primary voters from a tax increase to be enacted or previously enacted.

In the case of Oklahomans, their Republican legislators didn’t even wait twenty-four hours (AP via Tulsa World) . . .

The Oklahoma House worked into the early morning hours Friday as it struggled to pass bills that legislative leaders say are needed to help fill a projected $1.3 billion hole in next year’s state budget.
Two measures, one to eliminate what’s considered a double deduction for state income taxpayers and another that adjusts the state’s earned-income tax credit, were sent to Gov. Mary Fallin to be signed into law.
The other that caps a tax incentive for oil and natural gas wells was sent back to the Senate after being amended on the House floor.
Combined, officials estimated the three bills will save an estimated $240 million in state revenue that is currently lost to tax incentives, credits and deductions.

Now, one can argue about the wisdom of tax credits, but if you want keeping the tax code clean is the priority, then one should also lower tax rates to keep the taxpayers from losing out. That didn’t happen here.

It would have been even worse, but for the Democrats. No, seriously (although they had another agenda – AP via Ada News).

The Oklahoma House rejected a proposed $1.50-per-pack tax on cigarettes to help stave off cuts to the state’s health care system, with Democrats uniting against the plan until it includes an expansion of Medicaid for the working poor.

It’s things like this (and this is hardly an isolated example) that led straight to the Trump nomination. I’m sure most of the legislators who played this little game were not Trump backers initially, but this is his playbook: massive tribal signaling on the one hand, and tax increases (in Trump’s case, tariffs and “higher taxes on the rich”) on the other.

Indeed, just six months ago, Governor T-Mac included a corporate tax cut (albeit a slim one) in his biennial budget. Republicans in Richmond tossed it without a second thought. That’s right, T-Mac was more taxpayer-friendly than Bill Howell et al this spring.

It looks like the rest of the GOP is adopting the RPV model on taxes – all the more reason I’m glad to be out.