Continuing my take-aways series, my assessment of winners and losers, as always, is not specifically about the percentage of votes or number of delegates won this week but rather is about each candidates’ progress toward his long-term objectives.
You know, being presidential’s easy — much easier than what I have to do. Here, I have to rant and rave. I have to keep you people going. Otherwise you’re going to fall asleep on me, right?
-Donald Trump campaigning in Connecticut, 4/23/16, expressing his opinion about his followers
Donald Trump: Winner, but… – Trump swept all five primaries with outright majorities, as expected. Neither of his opponents campaigned in any of those states, but, in fairness, the reason they didn’t campaign there was that they knew these states were lost causes for them. So, Trump now has 949 delegates. He needs 288 more to lock up the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, but with the exception of New Jersey, none of the remaining states are Trump country. So, Trump is a winner this week because he did what he needed (and was widely expected) to do in these Northeastern states, but contrary to his campaign spin (and misleading propaganda spewed by Trump shills like Matt Drudge), Trump does not in any way have the nomination locked up.
Ted Cruz: Loser, but… – Cruz lost badly in all five of these states, but, again, he didn’t campaign there and wasn’t expected to do well there. All candidates have friendly and unfriendly territory, and this was unfriendly territory for Cruz. His losses there are not indicative of his overall viability in this race, especially considering that many, if not most, of the remaining states are likely to be favorable to him. Trump shills like Matt Drudge declare that Cruz is now now mathematically “eliminated,” but they know better. Cruz’s objective has never been to win 1,237 delegates before the convention. He always knew that was an unrealistic goal. Cruz’s objective has been to prevent Trump from doing so, thereby forcing a second ballot where Cruz has lined up a large number of delegates who are committed to vote for other candidates on the first ballot to vote for him on the second. Because Trump does not have a lock on 1,237 delegates, Cruz remains a very viable candidate for the nomination under the well-established rules of the party.
John Kasich: Loser – Like Cruz, Kasich did not campaign in the Northeastern states and lost badly there. Yes, his overall performance was better than Cruz’s, but that was to be expected in the Northeast. The fact remains that Kasich remains far behind Cruz in delegates and even remains substantially behind Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race six weeks ago. Kasich has little opportunity to win very many delegates in the remaining states, so, as I’ve said repeatedly, the only person who thinks Kasich is still actually in this race is Kasich.
The Democrats: Hillary Clinton was the big winner, taking four of the five states in yesterday’s contests. She continues to lead Sanders in committed delegates and to have a yuge lead in superdelegates. Unless a major unforeseen event occurs to dramatically change this race, Hillary is the presumptive Democrat nominee.
What now? Ignore all of the hype about Trump having the nomination locked up and about Cruz now being “eliminated.” That’s bunk. Trump needs another 288 delegates to win on the first ballot. He’ll win all 51 delegates in New Jersey, bringing him to an even 1,000, so he needs 237 more. Where does he get them? Indiana? Nope – Cruz will win there. Trump will get less than ten delegates in the Hoosier State. He’ll pick up ten or 11 more in West Virginia. Nebraska? All 36 delegates will go to Cruz. Oregon? Washington? The large majority of the votes in those Pacific Northwest states will be divided between Cruz and Kasich. Montana? South Dakota? Trump won’t win a single delegate in either of those states – they’ll all go to Cruz. New Mexico? Trump will split delegates with Cruz. California? Yes, Trump will win a majority of the delegates, but it is highly unlikely that it will be enough to get him to 1,237 unless he dramatically exceeds expectations in those other earlier states. So, the bottom line is that this race is far from over. I still say that Trump most likely will not have the 1,237 delegates he needs to win on the first ballot, and he has no chance of winning on any subsequent ballot. So, crunching the numbers shows that Donald Trump is not in any way, shape, or form, the “presumptive nominee,” and Ted Cruz still remains a strong contender for the nomination.
