New York take-aways
Continuing my ongoing series of primary election take-aways, as always my assessment of winners and losers is not specifically based on the percentage of votes of number of delegates won yesterday but rather on the progress made (or undone) toward each candidates long-term objectives:
Donald Trump: Yuge winner – I’m not happy about it, but there is no denying that Trump did exactly what he had to do to remain in the hunt for 1,237 delegates before the convention. With over 60% of the vote, Trump won an outright majority for the first time ever. More importantly, he took 89 of the 92 delegates up for grabs, which keeps him solidly in play to reach 1,237 before the convention.
John Kasich: Loser – Yes, Kasich got one of the best showings of his campaign yesterday with 25% of the vote, but he still lost by 35 points and won only 3 delegates, which still leaves him way behind Marco Rubio, who dropped out of the race over a month ago. Kasich succeeded in embarrassing Ted Cruz, but he did not succeed in lending his own Quixotic campaign any new credibility. As I’ve said previously, the only one who thinks Kasich is really still in this race is Kasich.
Ted Cruz: Yuge loser – I’m supporting Cruz at this juncture (with my preferred candidate, Rubio, out of the race), but there’s no way to put lipstick on this pig. No one expected Cruz to beat Trump in New York, but 15% – ten points behind nominal candidate Kasich – is an embarrassing showing for Trump’s main rival and netted him no delegates. None. He was skunked. More importantly, Cruz’s campaign strategy depends on preventing Trump from getting to 1,237 before the convention. As discussed above, this strategy suffered a tremendous setback yesterday.
The Democrats – Hillary Clinton won a decisive victory in her adopted home state over Bernie Sanders. Her victory was sweetened by having exceeded the expectation by some that Sanders had momentum and might even pull off an upset victory in New York. I suspect Hillary’s victory laps will be short, however, when they compete in the Northeastern states next week. Nevertheless, barring a sea-change in the loyalties of the committed superdelegates, Hillary continues to have the nomination essentially locked up.
What now? As J.R. points out today, Trump heads into additional potentially friendly territory next week with primaries in five Northeastern states. That said, and again as pointed out by J.R., it is mathematically impossible for Trump to reach 1,237 before the final primaries on June 7, and most of the states after next week look to be more favorable to Ted Cruz than to Trump. So, Trump needs to truly dominate next week’s primaries in order to reach 1,237 before the convention. If he fails to do so, then I continue to believe that Cruz will emerge from the convention with the nomination.
