Confusion Over Light Rail in Virginia Beach

City Treasurer John Atkinson has been talking about light rail since last summer of 2015 (He was in the news quite a bit then). He wanted to put a referendum on the ballot with a clear question.

Problem is I did a google search on light rail in 2012 and I can’t find a public quote from Atkinson about light rail that entire year. There was a referendum in 2012, and most of the group opposing light rail didn’t like it. It passed.

Four years later, those opposing light rail want a referendum more than anything (except for John Moss, who voted to have the 2012 referendum and says he opposes one now, at least if Council does it. He sure hasn’t asked publicly to stop Atkinson’s drive).

Regardless, no one knows the important answer to the question, “How much will it cost” until studies are complete next year (one of the reasons people opposed a referendum in 2012 was because studies weren’t finished – they don’t say that anymore).

Then there is the question of how many valid signatures are needed. 25% of the voters in the last election. That makes 16,500 or so wrote Kerry Dougherty of the Virginian-Pilot, using the November 2015 election as a benchmark.

But it’s tough to see that as the benchmark date when the Circuit Court approved Atkinson’s referendum effort and question a month earlier and many of the signatures were collected on the day that election was held.

Atkinson himself estimated he’d need more.

“He estimated he would need 400 to 500 volunteers to get at least 26,770 registered voters to support putting a question on next year’s ballot. (Virginian-Pilot Oct 20, 2015)”

He was clearly admitting he’d need to use November 2014 as a benchmark.

I don’t know how you can collect signatures on Election Day while using votes that haven’t even been cast or counted yet to determine your petition goal after you’ve begun. I guess that’s for lawyers to ponder.

The Pilot reports Atkinson has roughly 26,000 signatures, which may include some invalid and duplicate signatures. No problem against a November 2015 benchmark. Big trouble if it’s November 2014.

Atkinson said at a speech months ago which I attended that if Council would put it on the Ballot with a clear question he would end his effort.

Councilman Bob Dyer heard and has been trying to garner support for that since December. In the interim months, State Transportation Secretary Aubrey Layne was threatening to pull the state’s promised $155 share of paying for light rail if a referendum was voted for. That threat has fizzled away.

If Atkinson needs the 26,500 signatures he said he needed, he either needs Council’s help or he needs to hit the streets some more. If he only needs 16,500 one wonders why he’s waiting.

Council has debated several wordings of the proposed question in its version, including matching Atkinson’s word-for-word.

Some have even proposed to let Atkinson’s effort run its course and pass a resolution supporting the effort, and let the chips fall where they may.

Regardless, even if a referendum passes this year, when the price tag is discovered next year, it might all be for moot anyway and come in too expensive for Council to support regardless of the vote.

If Richmond pulls its promised $155 million, no referendum in the world brings light rail to Virginia Beach.

That money now hinges on Virginia Beach signing a Memorandum of Understanding pledging to move forward with light rail including buying new rail cars (presumably for joint-Nofolk-Virginia Beach use), with clause to cancel the MOU with 30 days notice.

The state Commonwealth Transportation Board is going to decide to keep its $155 million promise to Virginia Beach if they sign an agreement that lets either side cancel with 30 days notice.

That’s gotta be a joke, right?

All of this $155 million drama comes down to a document that you can get out of quicker than a Columbia House membership.

Whispers at city hall even question who initiated the idea of an MOU requirement in the first place. Might’ve been the state, but maybe not.

Bottom line: the issue of light rail in Virginia Beach has been made completely political. The simplest course would be to wait until studies produce an actual cost, put the project out for bid, and see what the private sector offers.

Some oppose light rail regardless of the cost. They’ve build political careers around it.

Some support light rail and have for decades.

Some say buses are better, but I’ve never seen them show up at a budget hearing offering to pay for more buses.

My personal view is I think most of the rhetoric is a bit overblown. I don’t think light rail is crucial to the future economic success of Virginia Beach nor do I think it will bankrupt the city beyond repair. I think people would ride it, but not in numbers we would brag about. If Richmond pays most of the cost, I’d be inclined to look at it. If not, I’m not in any rush for it either.

In short, I think Virginia Beach has a lot more important issues confronting it than this 3-mile track.

But you’d never know it at a Virginia Beach political meeting, where it’s the only topic anyone’s talking about that doesn’t involve Donald Trump.

Yet.