Primary Day Open Thread

9:09 p.m. Okay, maybe not quite. Incumbent Mark Berg loses to Chris Collins, 52-48%. Dunnavant has it locked up with one precinct to go, 38%- 30%.  (6,915 votes – 5,451 votes)

9:00 p.m.  Still waiting on official full tallies for 12th Senate (Dunnavant-Janis), HoD 17 (Head-Griego) and HoD 29 (Berg-Collins). Time to wrap up the live results on this open thread, but continue to post your discussion in the comments section. Thanks!

8:54 p.m.  A reader pointed out to me a very close local race for Commonwealth’s Attorney in Henrico. Tony Pham has 6601 votes (40.17%) and Jeffrey Lee Everhart has 6687 votes, (40.70%) right now. Any other local races to note? Let us know!

8:48 p.m.  Head still leads with one lone precinct results in Roanoke holding out. 125 votes over Harry Griego right now.

8:45 p.m. Still waiting on 2 precincts in the 12th Senate. Dunnavant is holding her lead:

8:34 p.m.  Amanda Chase pulls it off the upset of the evening against incumbent Senator Steve Martin! Final numbers are:

 

8:30 p.m.  Down in HoD29th, still no more information on the Berg-Collins race. Incumbent Mark Berg is currently losing to Chris Collins, who leads 60% -41% right now, with 12 out of 25 precincts reporting.

8:27 p.m.   With regard to waiting on precincts, Hanover still has to come in for the 12th; Colonial Heights still has to come in for the 11th. Can’t call those yet.

8:25 p.m.  In HoD 10, Dan Gecker won the Democrat nomination to take on Republican Glen Sturtevant in November.

8:22 p.m.  On the Democrat side, incumbent Johnny Joannou lost his seat (HoD 79) to Steve Heretick, 52%- 47%

8:18 p.m. Amanda Chase still leading over Steve Martin by nearly 900 votes. It all comes down now to which precincts have not reported. It will be difficult for Martin to pull this off.

8:15 p.m. The inestimable Norm Leahy calls it for Dunnavant in the 12th. Dunnavant still leads Janis by 8%.

8:11 p.m. Still waiting on 1 precinct in the Head-Griego race in the HoD 17. Head leads by 125 votes right now.

8:08 p.m.  Still close in the 12th Senate race, with Dunnavant-Janis leading the pack, 39% and 31% right now. 42 precincts of 64 reporting (65.63%).

8:05 p.m. VPAP has formally called Cosgrove, Hanger, and DeSteph the winners in their respective races.

8:04 p.m. Final numbers for Howell-Stimpson in the 28th. Certainly not Cantor/Brat 2.0,  more like Allen/Radtke 2.0

Candidate	Votes	Percent
William J. Howell Republican	4,746	62.08%
Susan B. Stimpson Republican	2,899	37.92%

8:01 p.m.  Bill deSteph has run away with the 8th Senate race, formerly held by Jeff McWaters. It’s currently 71% to 29%

7:57 p.m. Looking back at our flash poll today, Bearing Drift readers predicted Berg most likely to pull off an upset. The Chase-Martin race ranked third.  But Chase looks like she indeed may have done it.

7:55 p.m. Christ Collins leads Mark Berg with more than 55% in the HoD 29th, with 10/25 precincts in.

7:51 p.m. With 25/30 precincts reporting, Christopher Head is leading by 43 votes over Harry Griego in the HoD 17th. Just a reminder that Every.Vote.Counts

7:50 p.m. Nothing yet in the DeSteph-Hudgins race in the 8th Senate race.

7:47 p.m.  Dudenhefer has a 60% lead over Ciampaglio in the HoD 02, with half the precincts reporting.

7:42 p.m.  With 5 more precincts in (45/53), Amanda Chase still holds a lead over Sen. Steve Martin, 41.96% to 33.70%. This looks to be the upset of the evening. Thoughts?

7:38 p.m. Emmett Hanger is leading with more than 60% of the vote with 60% of the precincts reporting so far in the 24th Senate district.

7:35 p.m.  The 12th Senate district race is still early (9/64 precincts), but so far it looks to be a Janis- Dunnavant showdown.

7:31 p.m. With 50% precincts reporting (15/30) in the HoD 17th, we have a very, very close race:

Christopher T. Head Republican	567	50.27%
Harry Griego Republican	561	49.73%

7:29 p.m.  With half the precincts in, John Cosgrove has a comfortable lead over Bill Haley in the 14th Senate district.

7:22 p.m.  With 40 out of 52 precincts reporting, Amanda Chase is leading over Steve Martin in the 11th Senate district. This is going to be really interesting — stay tuned!

7:15 p.m.  Results coming in on Board of Elections website ^[1]. Looking like a landslide for Bill Howell in the 28th.

7:00 p.m.  Polls close! Bearing Drift’s own Shaun Kenney is broadcasting live on the radio with John Fredericks until 10pm. You can listen from John’s website ^[2] or tune into WHTK AM 1650 – Hampton Roads ^[3] to get the scoop and analysis.

6:53 p.m. If our beloved Board of Elections site crashes, you can always go to VPAP ^[4].

6:37 p.m.  Election results begin at 7pm. You can get them at the Board of Elections website ^[1].  Hopefully it won’t crash this year!

6:34 p.m Half hour to go. Turnout still low throughout the Commonwealth.

While it probably isn’t the “most important election in history”, it is important to some. So, if you’re participating, let us know what you see!

Flash Poll Open until 7 pm:

6 p.m. While the polls still have an hour to remain open, we are ready to declare our first couple of winners.

First, best Facebook meme goes to Chesapeake City Councilman Robert Ike:

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And, giving credit where credit is due, the best Twitter post goes to former Stafford Supervisor Susan Stimpson:

This gentleman told me I should be home doing the dishes. I told him I already did today. I’m a multi-tasker. #hd28 ^[6] pic.twitter.com/8RYdGQFxSj ^[7]

— Susan Stimpson (@SusanBStimpson) June 9, 2015 ^[8]

(J.R. Hoeft)

5:50 p.m. Talking around with folks today regarding the race between Del. Mark Berg and Chris Collins. The consensus is Berg could be the incumbent who gets nipped in today’s vote. Organizational problems, fundraising, outreach…plus a strong Collins effort in Winchester.

One way to look at it? Bev Sherwood’s revenge. And, if the sentiment and stories prove true, a potent reminder to freshman legislators everywhere to never stop working back home. (Norm Leahy)

5:30 p.m. It looks like Democrats might be starting to deliver for Barry Moore now that they have their nominee, Wayne Powell. Interesting. The Martin Campaign recently sent this email to supporters:

This primary now hinges on who is the best candidate to deliver a win in November, ensuring Republicans stay the majority party….

Cast your vote for proven, conservative leadership.

Cast your vote for the only conservative in this race with a solid record of beating Democrats at the polls.

4:45 p.m. What if Facebook decided today’s primary? Cool exercise in numbers at Virginia Virtucon ^[9]. (h/t: TBE ^[10])

4:30 p.m. Jim Nolan of the Richmond Times-Dispatch has tweeted ^[11] that Wayne Powell, a one-time challenger to former US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2012, is entering the state Senate race in the 11th District on behalf of the Democratic Party. My guess is this news helps Martin, considering how spooked some Republicans could be at the prospects of losing the balance of the Senate. (J.R. Hoeft)

Blast from the VA-7th past -Chesterfield atty. Wayne Powell, who lost 2 Cantor in ’12, files as Dem to run 4 Va. Senate 11th #vagov ^[12]

— Jim Nolan (@RTDNolan) June 9, 2015 ^[11]

4:20 p.m. Still low turnout in Virginia Beach. 14th VB precincts in particular. As for the 8th; G. Neck, Cape Henry, Lynnhaven, and a few others have the largest turnout. G. Neck still the front runner with about 170 an hour ago. (Virginia Beach GOP Chairman Ken Longo) Chesapeake and Suffolk are also reporting very light turnout in the 14th SD. (J.R. Hoeft)

4:00 p.m.Team Martin is pretty optimistic still. Alec Thomas, Martin’s campaign manager checks-in:

The bad weather this morning suppressed turnout except for the heavy anti-incumbent vote (which was only a fraction of the early morning surge it was last year in Brat v. Cantor).

As we were looking at the voters turning out this morning through early afternoon, it was a mix of support which demonstrated a GOTV problem not specific to any campaign. We doubled down on our GOTV plan for the day and made some additional investments, and it has been a steady stream of Steve supporters coming in.

It all boils down to GOTV. We identified an extremely high number of positive Steve voters as we knocked 20,000+ doors, had over 35,000 calls go out and in the last 4 days of the campaign were able to drop literature around 10,000 homes in Chesterfield.

Those are impressive numbers – and goes back to a point I’ve been harping on – the favorites have taken nothing for granted. (J.R. Hoeft)

2:40 p.m. Our reporter on the scene voted at the Gayton library in Henrico and saw retiring incumbent Walter Stosch pressing the flesh alongside the Dunnavants. Vince Haley was seen in passing (he lives nearby). Over 300 votes cast so far, about usual turnout for a June primary.

No one I’ve spoken to — yet — has seen either Bill Janis or Eddie Whitlock. (Norm Leahy)

2 p.m. Senator Steve Martin is sounding the warning bells:

Word on the ground is that voter turn out for today’s Primary is exceptionally low, particularly in Chesterfield precincts.

Each and every vote matters, in this nomination.

True. Low turnout seems to be the theme so far in these contests, which is no surprise. Conventional wisdom says low turnout favors incumbents. “Exceptionally” low turnout? In the heart of the district? Hmmmm…. (Norm Leahy)

1 p.m.: Senator Hanger has signs at all precincts … only two have been seen for one of his opponents, and they were in Greene County.

The Hanger campaign has people working the polls, the senator has been greeting voters as he visits precincts, and turnout in Augusta County — Emmett’s stronghold — is good.

On top of that it’s a beautiful sunny day in the 70s which helps with turnout. (Lynn Mitchell, Hanger Campaign Manager)

12:20 p.m. I was voter 15 at Glenwood precinct on Senate 14. For anyone to have a prayer against Cosgrove, they need big votes outside Chesapeake. (Brian Kirwin)

10:55 a.m.: I could be wrong in my introductory assessment. Apparently Rep. Scott Rigell thinks this election is extremely important!

I write today to ask you to support my good friend, Bill DeSteph. Bill has stood with fellow lawmakers on both Virginia Beach City Council and the Virginia General Assembly to fight for our shared conservative values. As a businessman, Bill knows how to create jobs and he is someone we can trust to ensure fiscal responsibility is being exercised in Richmond. Please remember to exercise your right to vote today, June 9th. The future of our country depends on it. (emph. added)

Wow. I had no idea that a low turnout primary election in Virginia Beach had that great of an impact. (J.R. Hoeft)

10:15 a.m.: I was #60 (public vote) and #79 (protected vote) at Gayton. When I asked the poll worker what the difference in the 60 and 79 was – he said 19 votes already were on the machine when it started.

I said “you mean, absentee ballots?” He said, “no, they were are just there..”

Janis team – aside from a ton of mail, knocked on my door three times including this morning trying to get people to the polls. The walker said that Janis told them their polls showed them down 3.5 points – but that could be a ruse. They have forty people knocking and dragging in the neighborhoods. He had eighty houses in our neighborhood alone to visit.

Light mail from Haley and Whitlock and more from Dunnavant who mailed about 1/4 of what Janis sent out.

Janis has run a model campaign IMHO and has made the fewest mistakes – the question is who was with him all along from his previous service and will they show up?

Haley had a guy at the poll. No other workers. The Haley guy said “Hey, want some information on ‘our’ candidate?” (Chris Saxman)

9:45 a.m.: Just voted in the Tuckahoe precinct in the 12th and it was a zoo.

Why? Because the elementary school was staging its Spring Festival at the same time. Voters, at least for a while, will have to pick their way through the kids playing games to get to the poll. And this has made an already notoriously bad parking area even worse.

Still, more than 130 votes or so cast as of 9:30. Not too bad.

The real fun is inside, as the county has switched to scan ballots. No more touch screens. Kudos to them for giving it a test run in a primary. Come 2016, though, this is going to be an unmitigated disaster (but a boon for pen manufacturers, as scores of them will walk out the door with voters).

Vince Haley was there, wearing a dark suit on a sultry day. Dr. Dunnavant was sporting her lab coat. Chatted with her briefly. Tried to track down Haley, but he was gone — for his sake, I hope into the air conditioning. (Norm Leahy)

And Senator Walter Stosch thanks you…

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9:30 am: So, one precinct in Suffolk, Whaleyville (14th Senate), apparently has had a whopping twelve voters. And Virginia Beach is also experiencing low turnout for both the 8th and 14th Districts. On a positive note, the largest turnout is in the Great Neck precinct. Total of 61.

When it comes to local races I have always favored the mass meeting/convention style. It’s at the state level where I split to open primary (provided it’s held the same day as other political parties). (J.R. Hoeft)

8:25 am: A BD remote operative in the Ridgefield precinct of Henrico County reports that they were voter #81 and that three of the campaigns for Senate District 12: Janis, Whitlock and Dunnavant managed to turnout some poll workers. (J.R. Hoeft)

8:00 am: J.R. votes at the Coopers Way precinct in Chesapeake with one other voter and no poll workers. He is too tired from watching Stanley Cup hockey last night (and putting together “The Last Word,” ^[14] complete with our predictions and podcasts) to check the number of folks who have already voted. Actually, he forgot to check until after he left. Oops. (J.R. Hoeft)

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For more live blogging, visit The Bull Elephant ^[10].