The University of Mary Washington has released a set of poll numbers [1] on a number of topics, including the U.S. Senate race, and the data show Mark Warner leading 47-37 among likely voters, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis pulling six percent.
So this fits the general pattern we’ve seen in previous polls [2] — incumbent Warner has a lead of 9-13 points, Gillespie’s numbers are moving (albeit very, very slowly) and Mr. Warner has a ceiling somewhere around 50 percent.
So…no repeat of the 2008 results for Warner. I’m increasingly thinking we might be looking at a re-run of “MarkNotJohn” in 1996, but with a key difference: Mark Warner spent freely in that campaign’s closing weeks. Because he could. I do not see Mr. Gillespie repeating that open purse sprint this time. Because he can’t. This also helps explain the whopping 53 percent of likely voters who say they still “haven’t heard enough” about Mr. Gillespie to know whether they like or dislike him.
Looking over the numbers in total, though, this survey picks up a slightly more Republican electorate than 2013 and the split breaks 30D/33R/34I.
Even with that split, Warner has a 10 point edge.