Internals numbers released by TelOpinion exclusively to Bearing Drift are showing some trouble for 11th District Congressman Gerry Connolly and a big surprise in November.
In a poll of 350 likely voters, incumbent Connolly leads but is BELOW the 50% threshold, polling at 48% against Suzanne Scholte, the Republican challenger. Only 26% of voters surveyed are solid re-elect for Connolly and his favorability rating only stands at 45%.
Scholte’s difficulty is name ID, but among those familiar with both candidates, Connolly only leads by ONE POINT, 45-44.
There’s plenty of ground for the Scholte campaign to make up, especially on two key issues: Pelosi and sequestration.
When asked whether voters wanted representative who would serve as a check and balance or a solid vote for Obama-Pelosi, voters chose check and balance 51-39.
When asked if Connolly’s support of sequestration made voters “less likely” to vote for him, the response was overwhelmingly yes, by a margin of 47-19.
Connolly initially voted for sequestration, the meat cleaver of a spending cut that has especially hurt Northern Virginia jobs and families in the 11th District. And these numbers come from a survey with an R/D/I split that was +13 Democratic, 28/41/30.
The Scholte campaign, which has shown some strong signs of activity lately within the district, online and on the air, has some golden opportunities to hammer Connolly on these wedge issues – should they have enough money and time.
But these numbers also have implications in the Senate race. If voters in Northern Virginia are so overwhelmingly in favor of rejecting candidates who backed sequestration, Mark Warner (one of the architects of sequestration) may have his work cut out for him in an area Democrats have relied on to run up the score for statewide races.
