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Polling aside, Medicaid expansion is a dead letter

The special legislative session on Medicaid begins Thursday and, in advance of the event, Christopher Newport University’s polling unit has some numbers [1] showing 61 percent of respondents supporting the idea of expansion.

Given the way the question is worded, that comes as absolutely no surprise:

Proponents of expanding Medicaid say that it will provide health coverage for an additional 400,000 mostly working poor Virginians who are uninsured. In general, do you support Medicaid expansion or oppose it?

Sure, why not? It’s not like we’re monsters. And by this wording, expansion looks like a free lunch. But on the question of whether the feds will uphold their end of the expansion bargain, 48 worry it will back out, 45 percent think it won’t and the rest aren’t sure.

Overall, the poll will make no difference in the special session debate. The House will pass nothing that even remotely resembles Medicaid expansion. The Senate may make feints in the general direction of something that sort of looks like expansion, but that will go nowhere as well.

And what about Gov. McAuliffe’s support for a proposal [2] from Del. Rust that would…

“…use Virginia’s share of federal funds from the Affordable Care Act in a short term program to pay for private insurance coverage for low-income Virginians not already covered by Medicaid, as the whole system moves to a block-grant basis.

That might generate some discussion. But again, it will go nowhere.