Eric Cantor’s announcement that he will cut short his congressional career by resigning effective August 18 is only slightly less surprising than what prompted his decision. That was Cantor’s unexpected defeat by underfunded challenger David Brat in the Seventh District Republican primary on June 10.
Former House Majority Leader Cantor (photo at left) has requested that Governor Terry McAuliffe (D-McLean) call a special election to fill his unexpired term to coincide with the general election on November 4. In his request, Cantor emphasized that holding the two elections will save taxpayers money because it will not be necessary to deploy election workers and equipment on a separate date so close to a regularly scheduled election.
One thing Cantor did not mention, probably because it did not occur to him, is that holding these two elections on the same day will offer a nearly unique opportunity to test the hypothesis that Libertarian candidates draw more votes from Republicans than from Democrats.
As readers of Bearing Drift and other political publications will recall, in the weeks before last year’s gubernatorial election, a number of Republican activists warned that voters who were thinking of casting their ballots for Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis might cost Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli the election. When Cuccinelli did lose, many of those same activists blamed Sarvis and Libertarian voters for the outcome.
From my own observations over the years, I have concluded that Libertarian candidates draw votes more or less equally from Republicans and Democrats but — more than that — get support at the ballot box from voters who would otherwise abstain. Exit polls from the 2013 election bear this out, as they showed that McAuliffe was the second choice of a slight majority of Sarvis voters, and the Libertarian candidate nearly tipped the scales in favor of Cuccinelli.
That’s all water under the bridge at this point, however.
Getting back to the Seventh District elections, we might be able to gather some empirical evidence about whether Libertarian candidates benefit Democrats or Republicans more — or draw in votes from those who usually choose not to participate.
There are three candidates certified for the general election ballot on November 4, all vying to succeed Eric Cantor as the U.S. Representative from Virginia’s Seventh Congressional District: Republican David Brat, Democrat Jack Trammell, and Libertarian James Carr (in photo at right).
If, as expected, Governor McAuliffe heeds Cantor’s desire for a special election on November 4, the Republicans and Democrats will doubtlessly nominate their general election candidates (Brat and Trammell) for the by-election, too.
Carr’s position on the special-election ballot is more dicey. Because the Libertarian Party is not recognized as a political party under Virginia law, it cannot nominate candidates by convention or caucus. Instead, its candidates must collect a minimum of 1,000 signatures of registered voters to qualify for the ballot. (In practice, this means collecting at least 1,500 signatures to assure that 1,000 of them are valid.)
For the general election, Carr had more than six months to collect signatures. For this special election, he will have perhaps three weeks to perform the same task. It is unlikely — but not impossible — that he will be able to do so, especially considering that he is (or should be) devoting his time to campaigning.
This means that, in the special election, there will be two candidates, offering a binary choice of Democrat Trammell and Republican Brat. In the general election, voters will be able to choose among three candidates.
Since they will be voting in both elections on the same day, we will be able to see the difference in vote totals for General Election Brat and General Election Trammell versus their totals as Special Election Brat and Special Election Trammell.
Will there be more total votes cast for the three candidates in the general election than for the two in the special election, suggesting that people who otherwise don’t vote in that contest cast their ballots for Libertarian Carr? Will Brat and Trammell lose equal numbers of votes in the general election compared to their special election totals? Or will Brat (or Trammell) lose more votes than his major-party opponent to the Libertarian?
Whatever the final results, there will be actual numbers to analyze and ponder, moving us toward a better than speculative answer to the question, “Do Libertarian candidates ‘steal’ Republican votes?”
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