First the disclaimers…yes, it’s a poll of registered voters. Yes, it’s mid-summer and most folks are paying attention to other things (I certainly have been). And of course, it’s a Roanoke College poll, which causes some people to dismiss the results out of hand.
But it’s hard to look at these numbers [1] and not feel that Mark Warner has reason to smile:
Warner leads Gillespie and Sarvis among liberals (78%-1%-5%) and moderates (56%-9%-5%) as well as Democrats (82%-0%-3%) and Independents (39%-21%-6%). He trails among conservatives (20%-50%-5%) and Republicans (12%-57%-4%), but his showing in those groups is respectable. Warner’s favorable rating is 65 percent among moderates and 55 percent among Independents, and he even does relatively well among conservatives (37%) and Republicans (35%).
Gillespie is still unfamiliar to both conservatives (19% favorable; 67% don’t know enough to have an opinion) and Republicans (18% favorable; 67% don’t know) to say nothing of moderates (3%-79%) and Independents (8%-77%). He can take some solace in knowing that Independents report they tend to narrowly lean toward Republicans (38%) over Democrats (36%) in elections.
Partisans will point to their favorite number and call it a sure sign of eventual victory (Warner below 50 percent? Trouble ahead! Warner taking 12 percent GOP support? He’s a cinch!).
We can compare this to a Rasmussen poll of likely voters from a month ago [2]. That poll showed Warner up by 17 points.