Prediction Contest!

GOP_DEMS_headtoheadYou’ve seen the polls. Watched the ads. Talked with your neighbors, coworkers, and family. You’ve read the blogs.

Now it’s your turn.

What do you think the results of the Virginia General Election will be Tuesday?

Give us the winner AND margin of victory for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. With a special tie break – the number of seats picked up (if any) by the Democrats or Republicans in the House of Delegates. If you’re really feeling motivated, tell us why you made your pick the way you did.

The person who is most accurate will receive their pick of anything from the Bearing Drift Store. My treat. Contest is open to everyone, including BD contributors.

Contest entries must be submitted by Monday, 11:59 PM!

FWIW, read Justin Higgins for his take and here’s mine:

Turnout: 36.5%
This campaign has been anything but a motivator. The McAuliffe, Northam and Herring campaigns have been fixated on “women’s health” and attempting to smear their opposition, while Cuccinelli has been hammering on McAuliffe’s business dealings. Only Jackson and Obenshain have run completely issues-based campaigns. Turnout in off-year elections is always low. In 2009, voter turnout was only 40.37%. That number only goes down this year.

Governor: Cuccinelli 49, McAuliffe 48, Sarvis 3
I have never been a fan of last minute polling. While it looks bad for Cuccinelli, I just can’t bring myself to think that the good people of the Commonwealth of Virginia want to have Terry McAuliffe as the face of the state. Over the weekend, Cuccinelli is bringing in some great guests to rally the troops, like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, and former Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul. There will also be a significant final ad push and GOTV effort. Not only will that pay dividends, but Libertarian Robert Sarvis has been polling at historic highs. Libertarians do not want Terry McAuliffe for governor. They know and trust Cuccinelli’s fiscal libertarianism of lower taxes and more economic freedom. They’ll come home on Election Day.

Lieutenant Governor: Northam 52, Jackson 48
Despite all the odds, Jackson has managed to connect with voters all across the state with a positive, pro-Second Amendment, pro-economic freedom message. His opponent, Northam, has relied on demonizing his opponent, to the point of even failing to shake hands with him (see 6:35) at a recent TV appearance in Norfolk. Northam campaigns on destruction (exhibit A: former State Sen.Nick Rerras). It’s a shame that it will work once again.


Attorney General: Obenshain 51, Herring 49
More than 110 sheriffs and commonwealth’s attorneys can’t be wrong: Mark Obenshain will be tough on human trafficking, support property rights, and protect Virginia’s laws. This one should be a blowout for Obenshain, but his campaign hasn’t been able to overcome some of the noise coming from other races. That said, people know the name and the man’s principles. He’ll take care of Herring.

House of Delegates: No change
I’ve heard the Democrats could win as many as 5 to 6 seats. That might be something New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg wants, but Virginia is not New York.

Special prediction – State Senate Special Election: GOP Pickup
6th district residents are in for a treat when the GOP nominates a strong candidate to fill Northam’s vacated seat. The Senate then flips to GOP control.

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