Countering the brutal numbers in Tuesday’s Rasmussen Reports poll of the gubernatorial race, Quinnipiac’s latest numbers [1] show the race between Ken Cuccinelli and Terry McAuliffe is a less hair-raising 46-39 (McAuliffe leading) and Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 10 percent:
In today’s survey, McAuliffe leads 92 – 3 percent among Democrats, with 2 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 81 – 6 among Republicans, with 11 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are divided 39 – 39 percent, with 14 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 49 – 35 percent, with 10 percent for Sarvis. Men are divided with 44 percent for Cuccinelli, 42 percent for McAuliffe and 10 percent for Sarvis.
Only 4 percent of Virginia likely voters are undecided and 7 percent say there’s a “good chance” they will change their mind by Nov. 5.
Mr. Sarvis remains the wild card. His support continues to be soft, and Quinnipiac asks his supporters who their runner-up would be. McAuliffe wins that 50-42 — which is also how the overall numbers would set up if Sarvis was out of the race entirely.
A critical point for Cuccinelli is that he still — with just two weeks to go — has yet to lock the base down. McAuliffe has overwhelming Democratic support, exactly what one would expect of a major party nominee. Where’s that extra 10 percent of the GOP base? Either with Sarvis or, to a much smaller degree, with McAuliffe.
As bad as that is, the killer numbers remain, as they have for months, the favorable/unfavorable splits. Cuccinelli is upside down, 38/52. Worse is that independents split 35/55.
McAuliffe has few reasons to crow about his own favorable numbers. Overall, he’s not liked — 39-43 favorable/unfavorable. Independents dislike him, too — 33-48. He’s just loathed a little less than Cuccinelli. In a race to the bottom, this qualifies as a bragging point.
And a stat that may be of some note: 17 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Ken Cuccinelli. Just six percent of Democrats feel the same way about McAuliffe.
The demographic information can be found here [2].