Hampton U poll: McAuliffe +5, Jackson +1, Obenshain +4

Hampton University has entered the polling game with a look at the statewide races. Their findings? Terry McAuliffe leads Ken Cuccinelli by five points, 42 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at eight percent.

But more interesting are the downticket races, where E.W. Jackson, all but written off by Virginia’s press, is in a statistical tie with Democrat Ralph Northam. And more surprising? Jackson is on the plus side of the 2.9 percent margin of error.

Republican Mark Obenshain leads Democrat Mark Herring by four points. But as is typical with the down ballot contests, name recognition is low, and undecided voters are legion.

The full poll results can be read here.

The pollsters assume the November electorate will be slightly more Democratic — 35D/33/R/33I — than it has usually been in Virginia’s off-year elections. This poll, unsurprisingly, sees independents as the key to victory.

But also of note is that they find the Libertarian candidate pulls evenly from Democrats and Republicans and holds the balance among independents. Ken Cuccinelli’s greatest weakness — outside of the gender gap? It’s among Republicans. In this poll, Cuccinelli is winning 78 percent of the GOP vote, while McAuliffe picks up nine percent and Sarvis five percent. Conversely, McAuliffe pulls in 83 percent of Democrats, while Cuccinelli gets four and Sarvis five percent.

At this stage of the race, one would expect the major party candidates to have in excess of 90 percent of the partisan base locked-in. Not so this year.

If this continues, election night may be very interesting.

And one more item in the poll? Eighty percent of the respondents want term limits for the General Assembly. Two terms, and then out.

I can live with that…

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  • isophoroneblog

    Does Jackson still have only two weeks to save his campaign before it is over? Just wondering.

  • John Harvie

    This is surprising: “But also of note is that they find the Libertarian candidate pulls evenly from Democrats and Republicans ….”.
    So it’s not deja vu Ross Perot??? Wow.

  • Scott Warren

    isophoroneblog asks a good question and a hilarious one at that. So what say ye bearing drift? It really is laughable that the big line says “Jackson has two weeks to save his campaign or its over” right next to a story where he has moved from down by 6 to up by 1 in the two weeks that pole talks abous and the 6 weeks that followed. You look stupid bearing drift.

  • ghostofteddalton

    I remember a good line from a Dole/Kemp staffer…..”If we haven’t broke 40 by October, we’re done.”

    There are a little over 4 weeks to go. Since mid-July, McAuliffe has had a small but steady lead in almost every poll. And very few of these polls (though there are exceptions) has Cuccinelli breaking 40.

    If Cuccinelli wants to win, I expect that in the next week to ten days, he’s going to have to ignore McAuliffe. That’s right….ignore McAuliffe. He’s simply got to go nuclear on Sarvis. Sarvis at 10% and in the last debate is the killshot on Cuccinelli.

    Though as poorly as Cuccinelli’s campaign’s been run, I’m sure they will simply continue bashing away at McAuliffe and allowing Sarvis to garner amazing press like he did in today’s Daily Progress.

  • Brian Oconnor

    Go to www. VAtermlimits.com our organization is promoting term limits for the General Assembly. We are traveling throughout the commonwealth speaking to people and getting petitions signed to get it on the ballot in2015.

  • The Libertarian candidate pulling 8% … that is news.

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