Virginia pressies were salivating over the release of this most recent poll [1] of likely voters from Quinnipiac. But the numbers confound the building narrative that Ken Cuccinelli isn’t just beaten but thoroughly cooked. He’s within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.
So instead, Quinnipiac chooses to say the race comes down to the Libertarian:
With 7 percent of likely voters, Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate in the too-close-to call Virginia governor’s race, could hold the key to victory for Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who has 44 percent of likely voters, or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Democrat McAuliffe gets a split 38 – 38 percent favorability rating, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds, compared to Republican Cuccinelli’s negative 34 – 51 percent rating. For Sarvis, 85 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.
As much as part of me wants to believe that Virginia really is seeing a surge in interest in a Libertarian candidate, Virginia voters have traditionally ignored third-party candidates when it actually comes time to vote.
Could this time be different? Neither major party candidate is liked and Ken Cuccinelli is actually disliked by a majority of the poll’s respondents. Sarvis could, theoretically, benefit in November simply because he isn’t either of those other guys.
We shall see.
The poll’s demographics are here [2]. The partisan split is 26R/32D/36I/8 “other”.
How does this poll stack-up against Quinnipiac’s late August results [3]?
Cuccinelli has closed the gap. In August, McAuliffe was up by six — outside the poll’s margin of error. The demographic make-up has changed [4]— the August split as 23R/30D/39I/8 “other”.
It’s important to realize, though, that Quinnipiac, both in August and today, says the electorate is more Democratic than Republican (or independent). That may be true. But it remains a bold prediction that Virginia’s off-year electorate will more closely resemble that of presidential election years.
Which, as Paul Goldman reminded us back in August, has never happened before. “Not even close.”
Bottom line: we have a real race on our hands.