Purple Poll: McAuliffe 43, Cuccinelli 38 but with surprises inside

I get a text message last night from my occasional writing partner, Paul Goldman. He’s read some poll numbers from an outfit called Purple Strategies that surprise him. So I go check the data and, sure enough, there are some surprises in this poll of likely voters.

The headline number shows McAuliffe five points ahead. He ought to be when the poll’s partisan split is 33D/28R/33I and 6 percent who “don’t know.” With the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error, we see that even with this split, the race is still a toss-up with a big undecided vote:

McAuliffe has nearly consolidated Democrats, leading 84% to 3%. Cuccinelli has room to grow among Republicans (77% to 6%), and leads among independent voters (45% to 33%). There is a strong split on education lines: McAuliffe leads by 18 among those with a college degree (48% to 30%), and Cuccinelli has a solid 11-point lead among those without a college degree (48% to 37%)

So Ken has “room to grow” among Republicans. He also faces a yawning gender gap. But then we see this:

…voters are evenly divided on which candidate is most ethical (36% McAuliffe, 35% Cuccinelli), with 30% unsure.

Behind those numbers, and that very short line, lie months of effort and millions of campaign dollars. The result of all of it — GreenTech and Star Scientific, gifts and graft alike — is that voters in this poll see the two major party candidates as even on ethics.

Some may regard that as unfair. Surely their guy is much more ethical than the other guy…who is little more than a third-rate crook.

Maybe not. Time to find something else to spend those campaign time and dollars on in these last few weeks.

I suggest ideas — why someone should vote “for” you as opposed to “against” the other clown.

Who knows? Such a course might actually give this campaign a theme, something it has lacked from the very beginning.

  • ebase22

    I’m still not quite sure what the main “for” theme is for either candidate at this point.

  • George Ramos

    Ken Cuccinelli is a serious man, for serious times.

    There’s already one amateur occupying the White House, we don’t need another one occupying the Governor’s mansion.

    • Mr Green Jeans

      Perhaps. But moderates are alarmed at KC and his social conservative agenda and tilting-with-windmills style. And speaking of amateurs, who is his Tea Party Lt. Gov. running mate? Another empty suit who can’t keep track of which office he is running for this time.

      Republicans screwed the pooch when they picked this freak show to run in an election that was theirs to lose. Only the RPV could get a self-aggrandizing braggart like McAuliffe elected governor. And they are on the verge of doing just that.

      • MD Russ

        Why are you plagiarizing my comments?

        • Mr Green Jeans

          I was just giving the same reply to the same comment that gets repeatedly posted. Sorry, I apologize.

  • yellowroz

    Well, us Dems would like to talk about the future, but we are terrified that Cooch’s uneducated base will drag us back into, oh I don’t know, some previous century; not this one anyway.

    I know it’s a pretty low bar – vote Democrat, for the 21st Century! (Hard to believe we’re almost 14 years into it, isn’t it….)

    I mean I know Virginia is famous for being nostalgic, but really.

    • Warmac9999

      The distinction regarding college education is misleading. NOVA residents are government employees or make their money off government contracts. Thus they are voting their paycheck not their education. Take away the inside the beltway crowd and then look at numbers. Most studies i have seen show conservatives to be generally better educated than liberals.

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