The Republican Ticket: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

In the ashes of Mitt Romney’s failed presidential bid last November, Virginia Republicans found solace in the fact that come 2013, we’d be in good shape to hang on to the Governor’s Mansion, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General seats, as well as the super-majority in the House of Delegates.

Conventional wisdom holds that when a Democrat is in the White House, a Republican wins the Governor’s Mansion in Virginia, and vice versa. Couple that trend with the statewide landslide in 2009, with Democrats lack of any bench or legislative success and overall apathy towards Democrats in off-year elections, Republicans had every reason to believe 2013 would resemble 2009.

Now we sit roughly fifty days away from the election dumbfounded at the way the 2013 election cycle has played out. Controversy and scandal have plagued the current administration, snaring Republican nominee Ken Cuccinelli in its wake. The 2013 convention saw the selection of the favorite as Attorney General (State Senator Mark Obenshain) and the surprising selection of little-known Harvard-educated minister E.W. Jackson as the nominee for Lieutenant Governor. Since May, the ticket has be buffeted by negative attention from Democrats, the media and even some Republicans. All this has coalesced to create a picture, that with roughly eight weeks to go before Election Day 2013 sees all three nominees at different stages and likelihood of election in 2013.

I’ve dubbed this: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.

The Good – Mark Obenshain

Let’s start positive.

State Senator Mark Obenshain has run a textbook statewide campaign. By far the strongest candidate statewide, Obenshain has put out numerous detailed and center-right positions on problems facing Virginians, such as human trafficking and taking care of the elderly. Obenshain’s positions have been surprising for their detail and their commonsense approach. There has been little (if any) pushback from his opponent, missing-in-action State Senator Mark Herring.

Obenshain has been busy, venturing from one corner of the Commonwealth to the other, taking every meeting, public convention, cookout, group event they can find and shaking hands at every occasion. These meetings coincide with his commonsense approach to politics, talking about the issues that matter to Virginians, focusing on protecting Virginians and utilizing the Office of the Attorney General to safeguard citizens of the Commonwealth.

Obenshain has been greatly supported in his campaign by the incompetence of Mark Herring’s campaign. In short, there is no campaign. Mark Herring has largely avoided public appearances before crowds that may be hostile or lukewarm to his candidacy, preferring to stick to Democratic groups and interests. His campaign frequently targets Ken Cuccinelli rather than Obenshain, giving off the impression he’s not sure who exactly he is running against. Herring’s campaign kicked off disastrously when he declared he would pick and choose which policies he as Attorney General would enforce. Since that catastrophic blunder, Herring has failed to put out any substantive policy positions, choosing instead to keep to the failed message of ‘getting politics out of the Attorney General’s office.’ However, to any person paying attention to Herring’s campaign speeches, Herring hopes to do even more politicking in the office, using the puplit to promote his agenda against right-to-work and various laws in Virginia’s Constitution that he doesn’t agree with.

Overall, Obenshain is in the best position to win in November, keeping alive the trend of Republican Attorney Generals going back to the early 1990s. However, given what we’re about to get into below, Obenshain has to worry about the rest of the ticket dragging down turnout and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Bad – Ken Cuccinelli

To be fair, the problem doesn’t seem to be the candidate. Cuccinelli is as pugilistic, driven and principled as he’s always been. Cuccinelli was a force in both debates/forums to date, at the expense of being almost overeager in delivering lines against Terry McAuliffe.

But the campaign itself? What in the world is going on in Richmond? Five weeks out from the election and Republicans are still trying to identify for their friends and independents what Ken Cuccinelli is campaigning about. In 2009, Bob was for jobs. In 2005, Jerry Kilgore was all about the death penalty. In 1993 George Allen was for abolishing parole and reforming welfare. What is 2013 Ken Cuccinelli?

His policies on education reform have been nothing short of perfection. They’re detailed, commonsense and bipartisan (seen with the recent endorsement of a Democratic Richmond School Board member). Yet these well-crafted policy positions are often lost in the din of GREENTECH! MISSISSIPPI! CHINA! and other issues the campaign is continually pushing. Rather than having a cohesive message on why Ken Cuccinelli should be the 72nd Governor of Virginia, I’ve got a laundry list of reasons why Terry McAuliffe shouldn’t be. That’s backwards, and a recipe for disaster (just ask Jamie Ratdke).

The efforts of 2013 Victory have been an embarrassment. Record low turnout numbers, a dearth of volunteers, slew of field staffers quitting days or weeks after taking the jobs. While the turnover seems to have stabilized now that Labor Day has passed, Victory 2013 has been a handicap for the ticket since before the convention in May. Compounding the problem is the inexplicable decision to (AGAIN) eliminate college campuses in Virginia from targeted identification. Despite the overwhelming response and success that Democrats saw in 2012 on college campuses and the wasted opportunity Republicans had then, Victory seems to have not learned any lesson at all for 2013. Victory staffers privately grouse and complain about the antics and treatment under directors. As early as February, Victory was demanding hundreds of doors to be knocked and thousands of phone calls completed, despite little if any cooperation from volunteers and recipients who were understandably election-fatigued from a year and a half long Presidential primary/general election. Victory has also alienated thousands of libertarians and Ron Paul-esque people, refusing early on to contact specific people, more inclined to volunteer. Choosing to do it on their own by starting from scratch rather than tapping into a vein of people that helped propel Cuccinelli to office in the first place.

The communications team floods inboxes on a daily basis with campaign emails, resulting in multiple messages, rather than one cohesive message. Victory jeopardizes this further by pushing out more alternative messages, resulting in daily half-dozen to dozen emails each and every morning, feeling like spam. The head-consultant, previously regarded as brilliant in Virginia politics, takes potshots at a polling firm via press releases mocking their results while every other poll in Virginia shows the campaign down outside the margin of error.

There is still time to get this campaign back on track, particularly when you consider his opponent is Terry McAuliffe. But this will consist of a campaign focusing more on Ken Cuccinelli’s positions (like this) and less on Terry McAuliffe’s negatives. Cuccinelli has been considerably out-fundraised in 2013, though that was to be expected. It’s up to him and the campaign to do less with more and get things back on track. Despite the landslide of bad media coverage and slew and anti-Cuccinelli television ads, Cuccinelli remains only 7 – 9 points down. If the campaign redoubles it efforts on showing who Ken Cuccinelli is and why he should be the next Governor, then it’s far more realistic to see a victory. If we’re treated to another two months of how GreenTech means Terry McAuliffe a bad candidate, then we’re Creigh Deeds, GreenTech is our ‘thesis’ and we’re in for a short night in November.

The Ugly – E.W. Jackson

Rarely have we seen a quieter campaign than E.W. Jackson. Eschewing the conventional statewide campaign tactics, Jackson has insulated himself from largely everything except Republican and liberty-minded individuals. The rude awakening into Jackson’s campaign was courtesy of the Washington Post earlier this month. Ignoring Victory 2013 completely (though given many of the issues in this year’s Victory staff, it’s understandable) but inexplicably ignoring every list that the Republican Party of Virginia can provide, Jackson’s campaign has set themselves up for failure.

I’ve always told people my thoughts on Jackson’s candidacy: this is his one shot. He got roughly five percent statewide last year in the Senate primary, and his message was trampled by louder, better-funded candidates. The decision to shift from a primary to convention this year leveled the playing field for Jackson and gave him the pulpit (pun not intended) that he has never had. That leveling of the playing field with the disastrous convention operations thanks to RPV essentially guaranteed a Jackson ticket. Convention-goers and Jackson supporters especially were uneasy about some of the proceedings that RPV guided in May. That was compounded by the unexplained delays in releasing the vote totals, triggering rampant conspiracy theories throughout the convention floor. Then the second round of voting irregularities in not releasing vote totals steeled Jackson supporters’ resolve and guaranteed their attendance through the end of the night, and subsequently Jackson’s election.

So Jackson wins, and everything he’s ever wanted to talk about becomes reality. This is his one chance, the only opportunity he’s ever going to have to get a statewide audience that may actually pay attention for once. But rather than talking about jobs and areas that he would focus on as Lieutenant Governor, Jackson insists on talking about ‘liberty’ and the federal government overreach. While this would be great if Jackson were running for a different position, as Lieutenant Governor he has little, if any, capability on resisting the federal government. This has resulted in some Virginians questioning his qualification for office.

Jackson got out front of the media in June, having an open press conference and answering any and every question that the press had regarding his policies, background and qualifications. In retrospect, that may have been the last smart and innovative campaign decision that they’ve made.

Few polls have showed Jackson with any sort of chance for victory; his only hope is that Ralph Northam’s campaign on pro-abortion is as bad as it sounds. In short, because Jackson’s campaign have their one shot and refuse to engage Victory and the party infrastructure, their only chance at winning is if the other guy screws up even more.

So the good news is, Republicans will pretty much support Cuccinelli and Obenshain in wide margins, somewhere close to 85 – 90% (Jackson will likely fall to around 70 – 75). But as with every election in Virginia, independents decide who wins and who loses in statewide elections. Polls are repeatedly showing Cuccinelli falling behind with independents, while Terry McAuliffe inexplicably remains ahead. Obenshain’s polling numbers have been quieter, but given his campaign tactics and the moronity of Herring’s, Obenshain is much better shape.

There is still time for Cuccinelli (and Obenshain). But Republicans are not in the strong position we expected to be little less than a year ago. It’s up to us now to get the word out, and hope that the campaigns come around to their potential.

Сейчас уже никто не берёт классический кредит, приходя в отделение банка. Это уже в далёком прошлом. Одним из главных достижений прогресса является возможность получать кредиты онлайн, что очень удобно и практично, а также выгодно кредиторам, так как теперь они могут ссудить деньги даже тем, у кого рядом нет филиала их организации, но есть интернет. http://credit-n.ru/zaymyi.html - это один из сайтов, где заёмщики могут заполнить заявку на получение кредита или микрозайма онлайн. Посетите его и оцените удобство взаимодействия с банками и мфо через сеть.