Norm took a quick look [1] at Quinnipiac’s poll [2] earlier today, but a few things jumped out to me that I wanted to highlight. First, Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe for the first time in a Quinnipiac poll, but its within the margin of error: 40%-38%.
Previous polls from Q-pac: 38%-38% (Feb. 20), 39%-40% (Jan. 9), 37%-41% (Nov. 14). You may have noticed that McAuliffe’s vote share has declined or stayed the same every time Q-pac goes into the field.
For those that care about this sort of thing, the sample was 26% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 35% Independent. (Quinnipiac’s last 2012 election poll was 27%/35%/35%) Both candidates are close to topping out support among their respective parties, while Cuccinelli leads Independents by 12 points. The race is tied along the Urban Crescent, and Cuccinelli is running up big margins in the West. If McAuliffe wants to copy Mark Warner’s campaign plan, he’s got a lot of work to do.
But it’s only March and few Virginians are thinking of the 2013 race, which is why the candidate’s image is the most important number at this point:
Ken Cuccinelli: 30% Fav, 24% Unfav
Terry McAuliffe: 20% Fav, 16% Unfav
Three notes: 1) That’s an identical ratio for Ken and T-Mac; 2) there is a huge gender gap here (see below); and 3) Holy shit no one knows who these people are. Here are the same numbers shown differently:
Ken Cuccinelli: 44% have no opinion
Terry McAuliffe: 63% have no opinion
Half of women have no opinion of Ken Cuccinelli. 60% of blacks have no opinion. Over half of Democrats have no opinion. A third of Republicans have no opinion. As you’d expect, all of those numbers are even higher for McAuliffe.
Also worth noting, neither candidate has increased their name ID since Quinnipiac went into the field in January. All of the shots across the bow from Cuccinelli and McAuliffe have been part of the quiet, cold war where no one’s paying attention except those who already know who they’re supporting.
What does this mean for you?
When you’re hanging out with your friends, and someone brings up politics, or you mention you’re going to a candidate forum or knocking on doors over the weekend, go a step further. Tell them a little about Cuccinelli. There’s a good chance they know nothing about him. The next time a Democrat tells you Virginians are turned off by Cuccinelli’s brand of politics, laugh in their face. Almost half of Virginians don’t even know his brand of politics!
The Virginians that do know Cuccinelli aren’t complaining about him. He’s got a 45% approval rating as Attorney General, with only 27% disapproving. 44% say he has the right kind of experience to be Governor; only 22% disagree. And just to rub it in the face of Establishment Republicans who are wary of Cuccinelli, more voters (32%) say his ideology is “about right” than “conservative” (29%).
Those numbers are also superior to McAuliffe. While much of this is driven by Cuccinelli’s higher name ID, more voters think McAuliffe (23%) does NOT have the right kind of experience to be Governor than Cuccinelli (22%). More voters think Cuccinelli’s ideology (32%) is about right than T-Mac (29%).
Meep! Meep!
All of this goes to show that when the Democrats run their usual playbook of running on social issues and calling Ken Cuccinelli an extremist, 1) most voters don’t know what they’re talking about, and 2) they’re taking a huge risk by not talking up their own unknown, deeply flawed candidate. But Democrats, God bless ’em, just can’t help themselves. In many ways, Ken Cuccinelli was the perfect candidate to run after Bob McDonnell’s 2009 landslide. Democrats spent that entire race talking about social issues and got their asses handed to them. Never again, they vowed. But oh, its Ken Cuccinelli. We have to tell people how extreme it is, they say, rustling through their Acme campaign kit and strapping on their rocket skates.
Some final closing notes from the survey:
— The 26-point gender gap remains the most troubling aspect of the survey. Cuccinelli wins men 49%-33%, but loses women 33%-43%. Cuccinelli’s favorables among men is +15%; among women, it’s -1%.
— 64% of Virginians are satisfied with the way things are going in Virginia, and the Governor has a very strong 53%/26% job approval rating. The base may be in revolt, but McDonnell’s approval rating among Republicans is 74%/14%.
— Mark Warner’s approval rating remains strong (56%/26%), but it’s the lowest approval rating he’s notched, down from a high of 64% last February. Tim Kaine, as always, is underwhelming with an approval rating at 47%.