VaPilot: Bolling Confident About Getting 25% of the Vote

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For anyone even remotely harboring doubts as to whether Bolling intends to run for governor:

“Is there a realistic chance of putting together the support we would need to not just be competitive?” Bolling said. “I’m confident I could get 20-25 percent of the vote. But you’ve got to have 35 percent to win” a three-way race.

“The difference between 25 percent and 35 percent is your ability to raise $10 or $15 million,” added Bolling, who is prohibited by state law from raising campaign cash during the General Assembly session.

Read it all.

One of the interesting things to come out of the polling data was that Bolling almost exclusively took from Cuccinelli — and barely made a dent into McAuliffe’s numbers. That’s not a good sign for Bolling as even within Democratic circles, T-Mac is considered to be more of a centrist.

Bolling will need (1) a very radicalized T-Mac, (2) Cuccinelli to make several mistakes, and (3) a veritable revolution within the GOP — perhaps over the transportation bill? — that would peel off the moderate GOP wing and give Bolling a chance to see daylight.

Bolling would have to see several changes in the political environment and a veritable rejection of both major parties by the electorate… not a small task and one well beyond Bolling ability to influence.  At this rate, while the numbers look a bit more encouraging for Bolling than previously though, it’s doesn’t appear to be a starting block — more of a ceiling.

Bolling did add that he would not play the role of spoiler, as it was not his style.

  • “Bolling did add that he would not play the role of spoiler, as it was not his style.” The mere talk of running as an independent is just titilating.. He is not going to play the role of spoiler yet he makes these comments.. Its like post Tsarist russia where the reds said bring us your guns so we can register them to you and they shot them instead.. Bill must be expecting tons of GOP folks to get booted out of the party. No? He plans to poison the well. No? Bill Bolling has crossed the line if in fact these are his own words and ideas. Do we ask him for his resignation?

    • You can ask ask him for his resignation. He’ll probably tell you to “cram it”.

  • No to JMDD

    No matter WHAT happens..

  • If Bill Bolling runs, as the numbers indicate, it would likely tilt the election in favor of the Democratic candidate. I don’t think he can pull off a victory, only a upset. Does hell hath no fury like a Bill Bolling scorned?

  • An Independent Bolling run would be a purposeful sabotage of the Republican party’s chances of winning. In other words, Bolling would be helping the Dems and alienating Republican moderates because he is butthurt because Cuccinelli would swamp him in a head to head race.

  • Never thought I would call Bill Bolling an outright SPLITTER. Wondering how long it will take to get banned for saying that here on BD.. tic, tic, tic… I also wonder how many delegates, senators, etc are throwing their name behind Bill “splitter” Bolling? Which factions will leage the GOP to help Bill split the votes from Ken and guarantee a Macauliffe win?

    • Big difference between splitter and spoiler… time for any Republicans who do not intend to support the nominee to stand up and quietly walk out of the room.

      Big tents sound good when the other guys are in charge… but the moment they stop being the ringmasters, they crack real quick — don’t they? 🙂

  • This has gone from silly, to just sad. Bolling actually aspires to become the next Russ Potts? What for?

  • Chill out, folks. It’s pretty obvious what Bolling is doing here. He doesn’t want to be a lame duck and he wants to keep Ken uncomfortable. He has never taken a major risk like this with his reputation, so why would he do so now? This is a press only strategy. Ignore it.

    • One heck of a strategy… why even flirt with it unless he intends to gain? It’s like watching a gambler at the roulette table toss out blue chips and lose.

      • Because as long as he’s flirting with it, he’s still news and he’s not someone that can be ignored. Once he says categorically he isn’t running, he’s effectively lost whatever power he has left, especially if it’s after session is over. My best guess is he’ll state he’s not running as an independent as soon as the session is over.

        • Hope so… but he’s trading reputation for relevance. Not a good trade, IMO.

          • Unless he’s holding a “trump” card….but I doubt it. Regardless of the facts the longer he holds out the more it hurts conservative chances….I see a close race at this juncture….Can conservatives, independents and the immigrant classes that may tilt the election come together? We will see who does the best job to reach out to them as a uniter….the way Bob McDonnell did.

        • Brian, He is gearing up to present himself as an “independent conciliator” – I have never heard such BS in my life. His latest message from “ADMIN” on his website is quite interesting.

      • Shaun do you expect Bill to smile and say “Thank you sir may I have another?” He got slapped in the face by his own kind….Even the “beguiled” from our Tea Party and Dems can’t exactly be categorized as good losers.

        • Nobody slapped him. Scuze the term Conspiracy but Bill conspired to have a clear path when he dropped out of the 09 race he was not going to win. It pains me to talk poorly of the man in light of his outstanding record as LG. I truly wished I could support Bill for some other run but after his own comments about why he dropped out I was disappointed. Then he had to make snide comments about the decision to switch from a primary that was “his” to a convention that is “ours” and it keeps on snowballing. Now our Republican LG is suggesting he might end run “our” party as an independent which he has every right to but he is doing it while he is a sitting Republican.

          What I expect him to do is either remain in the race until the finish or bow out and support the nominee. Romney was my last choice but after the rnc convention I and many friends did our best to support the nominee ON PRINCIPLE. What principle is Bolling standing on now? No he did not get slapped, he got reality.

        • The deal was between Bolling and McDonnell… if someone can point to where Cuccinelli was included in and made a part of that “deal” on behalf of the voters and conventioneers of the Republican Party of Virgnia — please do.

          Otherwise… it’s all sour grapes.

    • Matthew

      The proof will be in the session. If Bolling’s cut a deal with McAuliffe, you’ll see him break ties for the Democrats – – then we’ll know if it is his pocket book or his reputation he cares more about.

  • Bill Bolling, giving a voice to Virginia’s bratty children who didn’t get that toy they wanted.

  • Not Reginald VelJohnson

    Sean Connaughton must me laughing his ass off right now. Bolling won the battle, but Chairman/ Secretary Sean won the war.

  • I think the reason this is so scary to diehard conservatives is that in a sense, Bolling in now free to actually assess the party line, and in doing so, he realizes the Pary is hopelessly out of touch with mainstream voters, and if it continues its anti women, anti minorities, anti education, anti transportation, anti voter, anti just about everything, it will die anyway. Frankly, after a national and Virginia electoral debacle, none of the normal posters herein have suggested any change except to double down on the losing strategy. Perhaps if Bolling does run, he will be doing you all and the Party a favor.

    • Why don’t you call a meeting with Bill, Michael..

  • Matthew

    Bolling just met with McAuliffe. He’s looking for a pay off. If McAuliffe appoints Bolling to a position in exchange for being a spoiler, Bolling will show he actually stands for nothing but himself. What a shame because I used to believe in Bolling when he used to stand for something back in the days of being a senator. Now he’s all about “show me the money.”

  • Larsele

    Lt. Gov. Bolling is the least inspiring politician that I can imagine. This business of his pact with Gov, McDonnell is one example. What kind of a person would do that? A politician maybe, certainly not a leader.

  • sparkyva

    Bolling has a model for this: Crist’s run for Senate. First Bolling will run for governor as an independent, then after he loses, he will declare himself a Democrat just as Crist’s did. That’s our problem: Rinos are actually democrats masquerading as Republicans.

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