..and they have not changed from when I first proffered the results in early October [1]:
[2]
Norm has his break down of Prof. Larry Sabato’s analysis [3], and already the good UVA professor is backing away from his predictions. Of course, I am apt to push away from my own prediction as well:
- If Romney takes PA, then it’s over.
- If Romney loses OH, then it’s over.
- If the whole world goes crazy over the next 36 hours, then this map is worthless.
The whole key to victory remains New Hampshire. Should the Romney campaign capture NH, then the electoral math for Obama becomes highly problematic. Ohio is on the cusp of going Romney; Pennsylvania is tantalizingly close.
Should New Hampshire choose Romney over Obama… then that’s a pretty good indicator as to how popular sentiment is leaning in Ohio.
…and should Romney capture New Hampshire, then the rest of the game is up — even with a Colorado win for the Dems, Romney still squeaks by with 270 electoral votes.
Of course, if we’re in landslide territory — and there are a fair number of folks who believe we are — then all the prognostication matters for naught. Tuesday’s crystal ball portends to be a very good night for the GOP.
…oh, and Allen wins by 3 points in Virginia.