The Cook Political report has done a county-by-county survey of Virginia’s absentee voting through October 31st. The results — found here in spreadsheet form [1] — are quite interesting. Especially when you scroll to the bottom.
Absentee voting in Virginia counties (and cities) John Kerry carried in 2004 are, in aggregate, down just over 18 percent.
“Bush localities” from 2004 are down 1.69 percent.
The counties and cities President Obama won in 2008 are down 13.64 percent. Those John McCain carried in 2008 see absentee voting down 1.12 percent.
Make of the numbers what you will, and prognosticate accordingly.