Poking around the web today, it’s clear that the PPP poll numbers on Virginia showing a 51-46 advantage [1] (3.1 percent margin of error) for the President over Mitt Romney have some people spooked.
The Rasmussen numbers from Friday tell a somewhat different story. In Scott’s poll, it’s a statistical tie, with the President up 49-48 [2] (4.5 percent margin of error).
What gives? Let’s look at some of the cross tabs.
PPP breaks it’s audience out this way:
Republicans: 32
Democrats: 35
Independents: 33
Rasmussen’s breakdown this way:
Republicans: 38
Democrats: 36
Independents: 25
On the key question of who one trusts more to deal with economic issues, the polls come to different conclusions: PPP has Obama up 49-47, Rasmussen has Romney up, 49-47.
But where the real difference comes is among independents. PPP’s sample has more self-reported independents, and it shows Romney ahead by 2 — 47-45 — over the president. Rasmussen? Fewer independents, but Romney has a commanding 55-36 lead.
And then we come to a bit of partisan/ideological fun. According to Rasmussen, 12 percent of Republicans are supporting…Obama. PPP shows 15 percent of “somewhat conservative” respondents and a whopping 16 percent of very conservative respondents favoring Obama, too.
Right.
PPP says its numbers show Virginia is “something of a firewall state for Obama.” Conversely, Rasmussen says Virginia remains a toss-up.
So pick your poison. Virginia is either a lost cause, or tighter than a tick. However, given that Rasmussen had a higher percentage of republicans than PPP, and it still shows the race within the margin of error, tells me that Romney still has a great deal of work to do in the state. The independents will decide this contest, as they always do.
And as for those “very conservative” voters supporting the President….really?