Virginia Big Line – 2012; initial line

Just for fun, here is the initial line I have for this years general election races here in Virginia.

I create this line based on my own keen sense of observation, superior research skills, and exceptional political intellect, plus the input that I get from campaign insiders, other political observers and, you the commenters.

As things change, I’ll adjust the lines, if necessary.

I also may break this into trending up and down, as warranted.

In the meantime, have fun, enjoy, and let me know what you think.

Place your bets on the over/under in the comments. (Example, I have Romney by 1 – an under is <1 or an Obama victory).

Barack Obama v Mitt Romney
(Romney +3 Electoral Votes)
This one will be close in the popular vote, but we think Romney’s “doing fine”; Romney carries Virginia by 1 point.

US Senate
Tim Kaine v George Allen
(Allen +1)
George Allen will have a nice primary bump. But the ride to election will get bumpier – much like the roads during the Kaine administration.

US Congress
1st – Rob Wittman v Adam Cook
(Wittman +20)
Wittman has a challenger?

2nd – Scott Rigell v Paul Hirschbiel
(Rigell +4)
Hirschbiel is raising lots of money and campaigning with buddy Mark Warner. In the key 2nd District, expect to see lots of Obama and Kaine here too. This one will naturally be close.

3rd – Bobby Scott v. Dean Longo
(Scott +20)
Bobby Scott has nothing to worry about.

4th – Randy Forbes v Ella Ward
(Forbes +6)
Provided Ella Ward keeps her mouth shut and runs a smart campaign, this election could be close. Fortunately, those who live in Chesapeake know Ella Ward is incapable of that.

5th – Robert Hurt v John Douglass
(Hurt +5)
Douglass will be branded an opportunist and a carpetbagger. And it will stick.

6th – Bob Goodlatte v Andy Schmookler
(Goodlatte +20)
Andy who? The real betting is will Schmookler beat Kwiatkowski’s primary results.

7th – Eric Cantor v Wayne Powell
(Cantor +25)
A district drawn for Cantor by Cantor. Any questions?

8th – Jim Moran v Patrick Murray
(Moran +10)
The Peoples Republic of Arlington and Alexandria. Any questions?

9th – Morgan Griffith v Anthony Flaccavento
(Griffith +15)
Flaccavento was endorsed by Boucher. And the sun also rose today.

10th – Frank Wolf v Kristin Cabral
(Wolf +15)
Wolf would be higher, but this is still a Northern Virginia seat and it’s not the same Loudoun.

11th – Gerry Connolly v Chris Perkins
(Connolly +3)
Perkins has an uphill battle. This is Connolly’s to lose.