I have an unexplainable feeling that the current key candidates for the Republican nomination aren’t going to win the nomination.
Mitt Romney is frontrunner in polls that only tell me that people remember he ran four years ago. Michelle Bachmann just won the Iowa straw poll. Now, do you remember who won the Iowa straw poll four years ago?
Mitt Romney.
Iowa doesn’t predict winners well with a crowded field. Heck, the straw poll and the eventual caucus winner for the 1980 nomination was…
No, not Ronald Reagan.
Heck, Reagan didn’t even announce for President until November, 1979.
Romney is giving a hat tip to Iowa and gunning for New Hampshire. He’d better. I don’t think he can afford to lose both. His Giuliani-like non-compete in Iowa puts all his chips in New Hampshire. If he can’t win New Hampshire, he is toast in South Carolina again.
Michelle Bachmann seems to have an edge in Iowa caucuses, but in New Hampshire polling, she barely edges out Ron Paul. Bachmann is now officially stuck. If she wins Iowa, she’ll just do as she was expected, and will get likely no momentum going into New Hampshire. If she finishes second, she’s finished.
Now that Texas Governor Rick Perry has announced, I wonder what that does to the field. I don’t think Perry grabs anti-Romney votes at all, since I think the anti-Romney voters have their choices made, and those candidates aren’t dropping out any time soon. I actually think Perry’s voters will come out of Romney’s core who are polling for him mostly because they’ve heard of him. Those are the toughest voters to hang on to.
Look at New Hampshire polls currently. The larger Perry’s number is, the smaller Romney’s number gets.
It’s a long way until January, but right now, Perry’s entry into the race is only serving to hurt Romney, and if that holds, it opens the door for someone else to walk through.
Right now, that helps Bachmann. Moving forward, it can help anybody.
Will voters connect Perry with George W. Bush and not want that again? Watching Perry speak, the similarities are pretty strong. He wants to be Reaganesque, but voters have a funny way of choosing for themselves who gets that title.
Despite the buzz about Perry’s announcement, Bachmann’s straw poll win and Romney’s frontrunner status, the ground is still ripe for someone else to walk right in and grab New Hampshire and take over the race.
Then, all bets are off.