The United States Senate race here in Virginia now has declared candidates on both the Democratic and Republican sides of the isle. While the primaries are a prime focus at the moment, with numerous candidates on the Republican side, there have been some rumblings about general election strategy.
There is no question that the 2012 Senate election will likely be eclipsed by the Presidential race which is already looming large over the American political landscape. However, the Presidential race will undoubtedly bring out voters who would normally not participate in a mid-term or off year election.
This seems to be what newly minted Senate candidate Tim Kaine is betting on. Politico has reported [1]that Kaine has decided to make his first campaign speech in Loudon County. This should not surprise anyone given the fact that Loudon helped to deliver President Obama the Commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes in 2008.
Interestingly, however, just a year later in 2009 Bob McDonnell carried Loudon County. So the question is whether or not Virginia in 2012 will be a repeat of 2008 or a rendition of 2009-2010.
While many would automatically assume that counties like Loudon will mirror past Presidential year results, we should not jump to that conclusion. One of the strengths of Obama’s campaign in Virginia was that they were able to pull off the suburban areas of NOVA and Hampton Roads, this was accompanied by a strong showing among minorities. We see, however, that McDonnell was able to repeat that feat with suburban voters . I would contend that Republicans in Virginia have become much more capable of reaching suburban and minority voters than they were in 2008.
This will bode well for both the Presidential nominee and the Republican Senate candidate here in Virginia.