Redistricting Analysis: Fairfax Delegate Seats

*Guest post from Stephen Spiker, formerly “VA Blogger” from Too Conservative. Cross-posted at NOVA Common Sense.*

Below the fold are a district-by-district look at the changes proposed to Delegate districts in Fairfax County. I looked at only the districts that are based mostly in Fairfax. If the response is positive, I may move onto other localities and/or the Senate districts.

A few notes before we begin: I used screenshots from Leg Service’s site because they had the precinct lines drawn in. If/when better maps become available or known to me, I’ll be eager to update them. I used Obama and McDonnell’s vote percentage throughout (even in districts McDonnell lost) to represent kind of a “best case” scenario for each party. Underneath party performance is “W/B/A/H”, which is the percentage for white, black, Asian, and Hispanic of the voting age population.

Without further ado, let’s get started.

HD 34 – Barbara Comstock

(first elected 2009)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 53% McDonnell
2008 President: 53% Obama

W/B/A/H: 76/3/19/6

New District:

2009 Governor: 57% McDonnell (+3.4)
2008 President: 52% Obama

W/B/A/H: 78/4/16/7

Precincts Added: Wolftrap, Westbriar, South Bank (L), Lowes Island (L), Potomac Falls (L), River Bend (L), Sugarland North (L), Sugarland South (L), Senaca (L)

Precincts Dropped: Rock Spring, Chesterbrook, El Nido, Salona (partial), Tysons, Magarity, Sugarland, Clearview

Overview: Comstock won by only a few hundred votes in a district that included parts of Tyson’s Corner and stretched from the Arlington border to Herndon. The new map shores the district up by eliminating the precincts in the far east and adding precincts outside the county in the West. Note that the Loudoun precincts are still pretty swingy, but they’re better than the precincts she’s giving up inside the Beltway.

HD 35: Mark Keam

(first elected 2009)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 51% McDonnell
2008 President: 59% Obama

W/B/A/H: 70/3/19/6

New District:

2009 Governor: 49% McDonnell (-1.5)
2008 President: 60% Obama

W/B/A/H: 68/5/23/10

Precincts Added: Thoreau, Stenwood, Magarity, Tysons, Mosby

Precincts Dropped: Flint Hill (partial), Vale, Monument, Eagle View, Fair Oaks

Overview: In order to shore Keam up, the district loses much of its western portions that would provide a lift to any Republican candidate. The three Springfield district he loses in the South are reliably Democratic, but they make up for that by extending his reach all the way to the Mixing Bowl and adding more Tyson’s, which makes more sense from a “communities of interest” perspective. Adding Mosby (65% Obama) is a clear signal that this district is intended to be safer for Democrats.

HD 36 – Ken Plum

(first elected 1981)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 44% McDonnell
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 72/9/14/11

New District:

2009 Governor: 42% McDonnell (-2.4)
2008 President: 66% Obama

W/B/A/H: 70/9/17/10

Precincts Added: McNair, Frying Pan, Vale (partial), Flint Hill (partial)

Precincts Dropped: Kinross, Fox Mill

Overview: Plum’s Reston-based district changes very little, just swapping a few precincts south on the Parkway and picking up the fringes of Vienna. Despite the relative lack of changes, the district still manages to get 2 more points safer for Plum.

HD 37 – David Bulova

(first elected 2005)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 53% McDonnell
2008 President: 58% Obama

W/B/A/H: 67/7/20/13

New District:

2009 Governor: 53% McDonnell (+0.6)
2008 President: 58% Obama

W/B/A/H: 63/8/24/12

Precincts Added: Monument, Centerpointe, Fair Oaks, Eagle View, Willow Springs (partial), Powell, Stone (partial), London Towne East, London Towne West

Precincts Dropped: Mosby, Mantua, Pine Ridge, Camelot, Ridgelea, Price, Woodson (partial), Olde Creek, Robinson, Bonnie Brae

Overview: Here we have our winner (spoiler alert) for the most changed district in Fairfax. Once stretching from Fairfax City in the West to the Beltway, the district completely shifts course and now feature the City in the East, and stretches past the I-66/Rt. 29 interchange. The only thing the district keeps is the City, Villa, and Bulova’s home precinct in Sideburn (Woodson is split to only include George Mason’s campus, to link Bulova to the rest of his new district).

In the process, Bulova’s district acts like a vacuum for all the high-density precincts along the I-66 corridor, taking them away from Keam, Tim Hugo, and Jim LeMunyon. Yet despite the major changes, the districts actually gets slightly more Republican, from a district that McDonnell already carried by 1,000 votes in 2009. Without having to campaign in six years, and being new to over half of his new district, perhaps this is the year the clock finally strikes midnight on the younger Bulova’s career. If only there was a candidate who would step up to run against him…

HD 38 – Kaye Kory

(first elected 2009)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 43% McDonnell
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 55/11/18/29

New District:

2009 Governor: 44% McDonnell (+0.6)
2008 President: 63% Obama

W/B/A/H: 54/9/21/30

Precincts Added: Columbia, Hummer, Heritage, Bristow, Brook Hill, Baileys (partial), Holmes 1 (partial)

Precincts Dropped: Fort Buffalo, Greenway, Graham, Westlawn (partial), Whittier, Edsall, Bren Mar, Wayonoke (partial), Glen Forest 2, Willston

Overview: Like HD-37, this district gets slightly more Republican, but here its far less consequential. In informal geographic terms, the district loses a bit at the top and bottom and gets a little fatter and rounder. The result is a pretty compact district that covers the Annandale area.

HD 39 – Vivian Watts

(first elected 1995)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 51% McDonnell
2008 President: 59% Obama

W/B/A/H: 55/7/25/24

New District:

2009 Governor: 49% McDonnell (-1.7)
2008 President: 61% Obama

W/B/A/H: 58/11/20/18

Precincts Added: Camelot, Woodburn (partial), Edsal, Bren Mar, Pioneer (partial), Lorton Station, Lorton (partial), Saratoga

Precincts Dropped: Olley, Heritage, Bristow, Brook Hill, Columbia, Hummer

Overview: So much for compact districts. Even Bulova’s turkey wing of a district at least groups all apartments and townhouses in the I-66 corridor together. Watts’ district gets pulled a little bit in all directions, like silly putty, and now extends all the way from INOVA off Rt. 50 down to the landfill on the Prince William County border, while still managing to cover from the middle of Braddock District to the Alexandria City border. Watts’ has never been really vulnerable anyways, but the moves do shore her up a bit.

HD 40 – Tim Hugo

(first elected 2003)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 61% McDonnell
2008 President: 55% Obama

W/B/A/H: 62/7/25/11

New District:

2009 Governor: 65% McDonnell (+3.8)
2008 President: 48% Obama

W/B/A/H: 70/7/18/9

Precincts Added: Woodyard (partial), Battlefield (PWC), Mountain View (PWC)

Precincts Dropped: Willow Springs (partial), Powell, London Towne West (partial)

Overview: By product of being surrounded by good precincts, or by being Caucus Chairman, or both, Tim Hugo’s already-pretty-good district becomes much safer with the elimination of his I-66 precincts and adding two out in the Western end of PWC. In doing so, Hugo now represents the only Delegate district in Fairfax that supported McCain. It’s difficult to imagine a competitive race against him.

HD 41 – Eileen Filler-Corn

(first elected 2010)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 55% McDonnell
2008 President: 57% Obama

W/B/A/H: 69/7/18/12

New District:

2009 Governor: 53% McDonnell (-1.6)
2008 President: 57% Obama

W/B/A/H: 69/6/21/12

Precincts Added: Bonnie Brae, Robinson, Woodson (partial), Olde Creeke, Price, Mantua (partial), Ridgelea, Olley

Precincts Dropped: Woodyard, Sangster, Orange, Pohick (partial)

Overview: Filler-Corn’s district takes a jump North, as it sheds its bottom precincts to Albo and picks up the scraps from Bulova. The district ends up slightly more Democratic than before, but still a swing district that will definitely be contested.

HD 42 – Dave Albo

(first election in 1993)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 54% McDonnell
2008 President: 59% Obama

W/B/A/H: 61/15/17/12

New District:

2009 Governor: 58% McDonnell (+4.0)
2008 President: 53% Obama

W/B/A/H: 71/10/16/9

Precincts Added: Westgate, Woodyard (partial), Sangster, Orange, Pohick (partial)

Precincts Dropped: Lorton Station, Lorton (partial), Saratoga

Overview: Albo’s South County district actually doesn’t change that much: one more precinct in the east, and a few more from West Springfield. But oh, what precincts they are, on top of the ones he gets rid off, results in the biggest partisan change of any Fairfax District as Albo’s district gets a full 4 points safer. I guess spending a full decade as the Democrats’ #1 target in Fairfax had him asking for a change of pace, as its tough to imagine drawing this district any more favorably for him (without, of course, digging into Hugo’s prime territory in the west).

HD 43 – Mark Sickles

(first elected in 2003)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 48% McDonnell
2008 President: 62% Obama

W/B/A/H: 61/17/15/15

New District:

2009 Governor: 46% McDonnell (-1.8)
2008 President: 63% Obama

W/B/A/H: 64/15/14/14

Precincts Added: Cameron, Mount Eagle, Huntington

Precincts Dropped: Pioneer (partial), Belvior (partial), Hayfield (partial), Huntley (partial)

Overview: This Lee District remains mostly a Lee District, but lends some of the magisterial district in the east with Surovell’s 44th District while picking up Englin’s former precincts up north by the Beltway. All in all, Sickles is made a little safer in a district already pretty secure.

HD 44 – Scott Surovell

(first elected in 2009)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 47% McDonnell
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 55/22/8/25

New District:

2009 Governor: 45% McDonnell (-2.0)
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 58/22/8/21

Precincts Added: Belleview (partial) Kirkside, Marlan, Huntley (partial), Hayfield (partial), Belvior (partial)

Precincts Dropped: Westgate, Belle Haven, Huntington

Overview: Another (mostly) compact district, as the precincts that snaked up Rt. 1 to Alexandria City are lopped off and the District rounds out by extending east into Lee (and gets a rat tail down into Fort Belvior). Despite picking up Hayfield, this district gets even more Democratic, thanks mostly to Albo taking Westgate back.

HD 53 – Jim Scott

(first elected in 1991)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 43% McDonnell
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 67/5/22/14

New District:

2009 Governor: 42% McDonnell (-0.9)
2008 President: 64% Obama

W/B/A/H: 63/5/22/19

Precincts Added: Westlawn (partial), Whittier, Pine Ridge, Mantua (partial), Fort Buffalo, Greenway, Graham

Precincts Dropped: Woodburn (partial), Thoreau, Stenwood, McLean, Westmoreland, Kirby, Longfellow, Haycock

Overview: Jim Scott’s safe district loses a few precincts north in McLean in favor of picking up some south of Rt. 50 and giving his Vienna precincts to Mark Keam. With the addition of (half of) Mantua, his district now reaches the border of Fairfax City. Nothing much to see here, electorally.

HD 67 – Jim LeMunyon

(first elected in 2009)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 57% McDonnell
2008 President: 57% Obama

W/B/A/H: 63/7/24/11

New District:

2009 Governor: 58% McDonnell (+1.3)
2008 President: 54% Obama

W/B/A/H: 69/6/21/9

Precincts Added: Kinross (partial), Vale (partial)

Precincts Dropped: Lees Corner West (partial), London Towne East, Stone (partial), Centrepoint, Dulles South (partial) (L)

Overview: Like Ken Plum’s district above his, LeMunyon’s district doesn’t see much change, only picking up two partial precincts in the North, and losing some of the high-density centers off I-66. The biggest geographic change is cutting off the huge swatch of uninhabited land that Dulles Airport sits on, though that has no impact on the population. The changes definitely make LeMunyon safe, but his voting record and high marks he’s received in his freshman term have already gone a long way to that end.

HD 86 – Tom Rust

(first elected in 2001)

Old District:

2009 Governor: 51% McDonnell
2008 President: 62% Obama

W/B/A/H: 51/10/24/24

New District:

2009 Governor: 53% McDonnell (+1.9)
2008 President: 59% Obama

W/B/A/H: 59/8/21/20

Precincts Added: Fox Mill, Lees Corner West (partial), Sugarland, Clearview

Precincts Dropped: McNair, Frying Pan, Oak Grove (L), Buchanan (L), Guilford (L), Park View (partial) (L), Rolling Ridge (L)

Overview: Though the district improved by nearly 2 points, this is still a swing district and few Republicans could hold onto it. Thankfully, one of them, a candidate for whom representing Herndon is an electoral asset rather than a liability, already is in the seat. Along with Herndon, Rust takes some of the precincts Comstock gives up and swaps land with Plum, but most of the action is downsizing his Loudoun precincts two just two-and-a-half now.

Biggest Changes, Electorally:

  1. HD 41 – Dave Albo (R+4.0)
  2. HD 40 – Tim Hugo (R+3.8)
  3. HD 34 – Barbara Comstock (R+3.4)
  4. HD 35 – Mark Keam (D+2.5)
  5. HD 36 – Ken Plum (D+2.4)
  6. HD 44 – Scott Surovell (D+2.0)
  7. HD 86 – Tom Rust (R+1.9)
  8. HD 43 – Mark Sickles (D+1.8)
  9. HD 39 – Vivian Watts (D+1.7)
  10. HD 41 – Eileen Filler-Corn (D+1.6)
  11. HD 67 – Jim LeMunyon (R+1.3)
  12. HD 53 – Jim Scott (D+0.9)
  13. HD 37 – David Bulova (R+0.6)
  14. HD 38 – Kaye Kory (R+0.6)

McDonnell Vote %, Highest to Lowest:

  1. HD 40 – Tim Hugo (65%)
  2. HD 42 – Dave Albo (58%)
  3. HD 67 – Jim LeMunyon (58%)
  4. HD 34 – Barbara Comstock (57%)
  5. HD 41 – Eileen Filler-Corn (53%)
  6. HD 37 – David Bulova (53%)
  7. HD 86 – Tom Rust (53%)
  8. HD 35 – Mark Keam (49%)
  9. HD 39 – Vivian Watts (49%)
  10. HD 43 – Mark Sickles (46%)
  11. HD 44 – Scott Surovell (45%)
  12. HD 38 – Kaye Kory (44%)
  13. HD 53 – Jim Scott (42%)
  14. HD 36 – Ken Plum (42%)

Final Overview:

Unlike elsewhere in the state, this is a pure incumbent protection map drawn up by the House majority. Ultimately, it’s probably the smartest move to create four reasonably strong Republican districts, and one that could go either way if Tom Rust retires this decade. In addition, as the list above indicates, Bulova and Filler-Corn will have competitive re-elections, and Keam and Watts aren’t completely out of the picture, either.

As I was putting this together, I realized that every single district had at least one split precinct. In some cases, this was strategic, like using the bottom half of Lorton precinct to connect Albo’s two sides of I-95 or GMU’s campus to connect Bulova to the rest of his district. The others are likely done to meet deviation goals, and I’ve heard from a few people that these will be sorted out… which means I get to come back here and do this all over again down the line.

References:

Maps, Ethnicity breakdowns, new 2009 Electoral Data: http://redistricting.dls.virginia.gov/2010/RedistrictingPlans.aspx

Old 2008/2009 Electoral Data: www.vpap.org

New 2008 Electoral Data: http://www.gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html* (because of the split precincts, I used my best judgment to give a whole precinct to one district or the other; as a result, the new Obama vote percentages may be off by up to a percentage point.)

  • Great post, Stephen. Thanks for sharing it on Bearing Drift. If only there was another Spiker who do something like this in Hampton Roads….

    As for a challenger for Bulova, I think we already know who that is!

  • Observer

    Excellent analysis. But, Hugo also picked up part of Alvey (59% GOP) in PWC.

  • Jerry M. Spiker

    Even though I live in Hampton Roads, I’m sorry but I’m just too busy to do it.

    Great analysis, Stephen. Very impressive.

  • D.J. Spiker

    hahahahahahaha that made me chuckle. a lot.

    Great post Stephen!

  • Andy

    Thanks for the summary – great stuff. I wasn’t able to tell who would get Del. Comstock’s eastern districts, specifically Chesterbrook? Thanks!

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