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It’s been nearly two months since the Gaza “freedom flotilla” captivated and divided the world. Now, for the first time, we have an idea of what the Turkish electorate thinks – and for the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), the answer is not good.
Amidst the discussion of Turkey becoming the newest jihadist haven (and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan becoming the next jihadist leader), yours truly [2] noticed that Erdogan’s AKP was in political trouble. What was not known was the effect of the flotilla fallout.
Well, now we know. Sonar Aristrima conducts monthly polls on Turkey. Angus Reid [3] and Bloomberg [4] reported on its July figures. Compared to May (before the flotilla raid), the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has gained a point, while the AKP is flat. Among other things, this put’s CHP’s lead outside the margin of error.
Meanwhile, the third place Nationalist Movement Party/Nationalist Action Party (MHP) easily clears the 10% threshold needed to remain in Parilament – meaning the CHP and MHP can still block the AKP from returning to power.
Bloomberg has some other details which are none too promising for the AKP:
Erdogan received the lowest rating for trust of any Turkish leader or government branch listed in the poll, at 33 percent. The most trustworthy was the armed forces, with 78 percent. The poll also shows 46 percent of respondents had a negative outlook on the economy.
According to the poll, 77 percent said unemployment was the country’s most important problem.
I reiterate two things I said last time: the election is a year away, and the CHP, while secular, is a left-wing party that will give Washington some headaches. Still, two months after Erdogan was basking in the glow of an international spin campaign par excellence, the people who actually determine if he’ll keep his job are as unhappy with him now as they were then.
The rest of us need to keep that in mind.