Next President? Not Romney, Paul, Palin, Gingrich

The big news out of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference was the results of the straw poll, where Mitt Romney edged out Ron Paul and Sarah Palin bested Newt Gingrich for third place.

Romney’s trying his best to follow Reagan’s course of losing a primary but winning it all four years later. So far, he looks like all he’s doing is following Steve Forbes’ course of losing a primary and losing another one four years later.

If all he can do with all those dollars and endorsements is squeak past Ron Paul, who has a history of running against a Republican Presidential nominee, then turn out the lights, Mitt. The party’s over.

It’s probably over for Sarah Palin, who wows the crowds but has been ravaged by sexist Democrats and chauvinist media to gain any momentum that would last beyond Iowa. And Newt? Love him, but there’s a problem with all these folks.

If anyone hasn’t figured out that the 2012 Republican nomination battle is going to be won by someone who hasn’t run for it before and is barely known by the nation, I sure have.

The three times Democrats have won in the past 40 years, they nominated someone completely new to the national stage. Each time they beat Washington careerists.

We didn’t beat Clinton by nominating Dole and running a “let’s go back to yesterday” campaign. We’re not going to beat Obama by nominating folks the public has already passed on.

New faces, new ideas, new approaches. I don’t want to have another “I’ve been in Washington for 30 years, and I’m the candidate of change” campaign.

The question is who…

  • William Jackson

    Brian – I don’t disagree with you, and I’m saying I support her, but Palin hasn’t really been publicly passed on – yet. If anything she probably did more to bring folks out than McCain did. Same with Newt.

    Romney, yes. Huck, yes. But the other two haven’t had their names at the top of the ballot.

  • The country has to take a look at Minnesota’s Pawlenty and former New Mexico Gov. Johnson.

    It’s going to be a governor.

  • Marcus

    I like Mitch Daniels, Governor of Indiana

  • BigBlue

    Bob Mcdonnell/ Eric Cantor

  • Aaron

    Pawlenty and Daniels.

    Huck is a TV show host….get off that bandwagon.

  • Matt

    Let me be the first to throw this name out there. Not many people in the nation knows who this person is so that should help.

    Brian Kirwin for President 2012!!!

  • Steve Vaughan

    Matt: You’ve said the only thing that could possibly make me look forward to a Romeny campaign.

    I think Pawlenty, Barbour and maybe McDonnell have better shots than the people listed in this poll.

  • David Skiles

    Let’s nominate a State Senator that seems to work well for the Dem’s too.

  • Dodo

    If all he can do with all those dollars and endorsements is squeak past Ron Paul

    Does Brian not know about Ron Paul’s polling? He routinely wins these things hands down. It’s actually pretty surprising he didn’t win this one.

  • I think there’s a possibility that former New Mexico governor, Gary Johnson, could create a lot of buzz amongst the conservatives and Republitarians alike – if Ron Paul doesn’t seek the nomination. He’s certainly charming, well-spoken and a proven constitutional conservative.

    However, he’s currently lagging in name-identification and so forth… That can change, though.

  • Steven Osborne

    Matt Lewis threw out Marco Rubio’s name the other day. If he wins the senate seat, which is looking like a possibility, then he may be the kind of outsider candidate that conservatives can rally behind. He is not a governor, however, he held a significantly powerful position in Florida state government.

    Also, I think that we should seriously consider the idea of nominating Governor McDonnell, he has both executive and military experience.

  • Ryan

    So Brian when are you going to announce and start healing the nation?

  • Steve Vaughan

    How’s he going to heal the nation? He’s against health care.

  • Ryan

    Steve:
    He is a force that will be able to bring everyone together. I mean they might not be together behind him but everyone will come together.

  • Dodo, Ron Paul wins straw polls because his supporters are bused in for the explicit purpose of voting for him. Yet, in scientific polls, he never rates that high. Now I’m the first person to place skepticism on such polls. However, when you have a candidate that tends to stay in the single digits in polling, there is little reason to get excited. Obama won because he excited all the Democrats; we cannot expect Republicans to come back because 5% of Republicans are fanatics of Ron Paul and the rest either cannot stand him or are indifferent to him.

  • David A.

    Brian,

    I have to completely disagree with your assumption here. To knock Romney out of nomination is completely and utterly ridiculous at this point.

    In all most all reputable mediums, he is considered the front runner. Even Intrade predicts him winning the nomination.

    To discredit him for barely winning the SRLC straw poll and Paul winning the CPAC one underscores your lack of knowledge of how these polls are won.

    I will agree with you that Palin’s chances are slim to none. The fact is…she’s too polarizing to make it through the general. As for Gingrich, he’ll flirt with the notion, be wooed to run, but end up not doing so.

    Let’s be honest here, of all the GOP candidates poised to make a run, Romney is at the top tier in terms of qualifications. He’s got the organization, the money, the experience of having run a natl pres. campaign, etc.

    We’d be stupid to not nominate the person most capable of taking down Obama.

    Now to throw out names like Rubio is WAY premature. Granted he was the FL House Speaker, but he is way to young to make a run at it. I am not comparing him to Obama, but looked what happened there.

    Let Rubio mature in the Senate for 1-2 terms. Or let him spend some time in DC and go back to FL and follow the Putnam route to Governor and then maybe President.

    As for McDonnell, he’s great. But I don’t think he could stand up to the Obama machine. His candidacy would be best in the VP spot (same as Thune or Ryan), or in an open-election.

  • Govgirl

    I would LOVE for McDonnell to run, but he has said he is going to finish his term as Gov. first, so look for him in 2016. Personally, I want to be very careful who we pick in 2012 – despite the fact that Obama might have job approval ratings in teh 20’s at that point, there are a significant number of koolaid drinkers who will NEVER and I do me NEVER see the light on him. I do not want to risk one of our best and brightest of the future in a white house run that is not winnable. For right now, we need to be focusing on 2010 – we’ll worry about 2012 after we take back the Congress.

  • Brian Kirwin

    David A., Romney isn’t going anywhere. Republicans didn’t nominate Mr. Health Care in 2008. They aren’t likely to do so in 2012. Romney lost and lost and lost, and as long as the GOP relies on winner-take-all primaries, the math doesn’t work for Romney. You have to win, and I’ve never seen Romney win much. He led the polls early, but lost Iowa. He had New Hampshire in his hands and lost it. He won Michigan which was basically ceded to him, and then lost SC and Super Tuesday so big he dropped out.

    This health care issue isn’t going to bring Romney any better results. And if the best he can do is eek out a straw poll over Texas Moonbeam by one vote, there’s no saving him.

  • Steve Bierfeldt

    To CR UVa,

    Can you please provided evidence that Ron Paul wins because, “his supporters are bused in for the explicit purpose of voting for him.”

    Thank you.

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  • David A.

    Romney has Crist to thank for his loss of the nomination.

    Had Crist not come out and endorsed McCain right before the primary, Romney would have carried FL. With FL, Romney would have had the momentum heading into Super Tuesday.

  • David A.

    For once, I’ll agree with Govgirl in the need to focus on 2010 and the comedy of errors that is VA-2.

  • Black Knight 6

    Dave Patraeus. The right man at the right time.

  • J. Christopher Stearns

    If one believes that Paul’s supporters are literally bused in, he or she is absolutely oblivious to reality. I think it’s pretty obvious that there’s something about Paul’s message that excites a lot of people – especially the youth. Why not reach out to these folks instead of shun them?

  • David A.

    Actually, its not too far from the truth. Most of the top candidates bought tickets and gave them for free or reduced rates on the promise that the registrant would vote for him or her. That’s how these things work.

    And really, can we please move past Paul. He has as much of a chance of being elected President as my refrigerator.

  • Govgirl

    Right back at you David on the “on one thing we agree” – I laughed out loud at your comparison of Paul’s chances at the Presidency to that of your refrigerator.

  • There was one name the poll was lacking.. General Petraeus.

    The following is an open Letter to General Petraeus, origin unknown. It is an honor to have the earliest ‘Petraeus 2012’ vehicle decal known.

    Sir,

    You have served your country with great honor and dignity as a career officer in the United States Army. We ask you to consider a new career as our next President.

    As the Commander of MNF-I, you prevented America’s defeat in the Middle East against all odds. As the Commander of CENTCOM, we are confident you will ensure American troops leave the Middle East with victory and honor. The Middle East will be a more stable region as a direct result of your leadership and the actions of our troops, and America’s interests will be more secure.

    As the current President withdraws American troops from the Middle East, your mission will come to a close. As your mission comes to a close, we implore you to return home and lead a new mission to become the next President of the United States.

    Americans troops needed you in the Middle East to them to victory against all odds. Now, the American people need you to return home and lead America to victory domestically, as corrupt politicians in Congress and the White House are leading us into domestic disasters.

    When your work in the Middle East is done, please retire your Army uniform and run for President in 2012!

    God Bless America and her troops.

    Sincerely,

    Americans for Petraeus 2012

  • David A.

    In EVERY interview he’s given where’s he asked if he’s remotely thinking about running for President, he says no. Petraeus is not running…and to be honest, why would he want to. The nation’s current issues are tilted to the domestic side, and his focus is more intl.

  • Uh, um.. David A, What is the primary role of the head of state aside from having the vested power to execute the instructions of Congress?

    We lack a proficient commander in chief of our armed forces. Our enemies do not have blinders on and slowly the American people are recognizing the clear and present leadership vacuum at 14th & Penn.

  • Jerry Z

    @turbo,
    I would have to know more about him than the fact he has a measure of military leadership and management skills. I know that in nation building, a considerable measure of political skills are needed as well. This letter sounds like blind hero worship – “you prevented America’s defeat in the Middle East against all odds”. The problem we have had with achieving victory in the Middle East was a lack of committment. Most people were not and are not affected by the current wars on a day-to-day basis. Most of America’s resources were not committed to war. “Against all odds” is an extreme exaggeration. However, getting democracy to stick, that may be against all odds.

  • Aaron Gulbransen

    What do you guys think of Haley Barbour?

  • David A.

    Haley is a former lobbyist, former RNC Chairman and current Governor.

  • GovGirl

    How about Herman Cain – you all really need to listen to his speech at SRLC if you missed it. Its good stuff.

  • Dodo

    CR UVa: I know. That’s kind of the point I was trying to make. Brian made the argument that for all the money spent and ads made for Romney, if the best he can do is just squeak by Ron Paul (an anti-Republican Republican), he’s a total bust.

    But beating Paul in a straw poll like this is something of an anomoly, as I said, for many of the reasons you point out.

    Paul wins these hands down, and this time, Romney actually beat him. So maybe instead of writing Romney off (for his ineffective ads and fundraising), he should be thinking more like “Romney’s ads might actually be accomplishing something. They at least contributed to his surprising straw poll victory.”

  • L Jones

    I urge all to take a look at Gary Johnson NM gov. Check out his consevative credentials. He managed New Mexico very well.

  • I predict our candidate will be either a current or former Governor. ANYBODY but a Senator again!

  • Steven Osborne

    L. Jones,

    Governor Johnson is pro-abortion.

    In other words, that liberty that he keeps talking about doesn’t apply to the unborn.

    He is perfectly entitled to run for the nomination, however, to call him a conservative would not be accurate.

  • Jerold Hawke

    General Patraeus is the ticket.

  • Jim Guardino

    The President’s most important duty under the Constitution is to defend the nation. Obama fails by any meaasure. General Patraeus would bring trust to the office. That’s what we are missing now. The American people can’t trust Obama. And we can’t trust most of the old hands who claim to be conservatives. These old name brands, Gingrich, Romney, et al contributed to this lack of trust. They voted for these budget busting programs that are destroying the country at one time or another. Why?

  • William Bailey

    I trust Obama and polls show greater than 51% of Americans support The President. I don’t know where you have your head but you really need to go find something positive to do. Why?

  • And Jim G. I am with you buddy.. The general would restore respect to the office of the president.

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