Released this morning, a new PPP poll [1]. A few irregularities in the poll:
– Skewed heavily Democratic responses (this poll was 37% D, only 29% R and 34% I)
– For some reason, area code tracking was disproportionate as well (276-6%, 434-10%, 540-24%, 703-21%, 757-17%, 804-22%)
In spite of all that, there continues to be good news for Republicans, who are still on pace to sweep the statewide races:
– Bob McDonnell, Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli continue to lead their races by +5, +8 and +9, respectively
– Bob continues to crush Deeds among independent voters, this time +16
– Women accounted for 54% of the poll and still shows a McDonnell lead identical to other recent polls, refuting Deeds continued attacks
– Thesis impact continues to be little to none; 81% of people were familiar with the story, an overwhelming margin of 67% said it made it more likely to vote for Bob or had no impact on their vote and additionally, from the PPP notes:
The vast majority of that 34% who said the thesis made them less likely to vote for McDonnell had already been Deeds voters before that story came out.
– This poll puts to rest the horribly done Politico sponsored poll from last week showing a large enthusiasm gap against Republicans; Bob has support from 96% Republicans, while Deeds struggles to receive only 82% of Democrats
– When asked who they supported in 2005, Kaine or Kilgore, it was 51-39 Kaine; of these same voters, Bob McDonnell is leading
– When asked a month ago who they supported, it was 39 Deeds/40 McDonnell with 21 % undecided; that 21 reduced to 8, with 8% choosing McDonnell and just 5% choosing Deeds.
UPDATE
Wow, after taking a further look at the internals…
– Raise your hands if you think Creigh Deeds will win in 757 by TWELVE points? Anyone? Anyone at all? How about thinking Deeds has a favorable rating of +18 while Bob has a -5 in 757?
– How about those new 2008 Obama voters in the 18-29 age range? Unfavorable to Deeds by -13% (good luck getting them excited about you Creigh)
Deeds cannot win unless virtually all the remaining undecideds break his way, as they did in the Democratic primary. But Deeds is forced to appeal to his base, with 18% not supporting him and independents to bridge his 16% gap; that means continued ‘I won’t raise taxes but I’ll raise revenues’ to try appealing to both sides. Also means continued attacks from Deeds while giving voters no reason to choose him.
Continued good news for Bob McDonnell, not many rays of sunshine in this Democratic polling firm’s numbers. It’s only Tuesday, Bob has received another endorsement today [2]; anyone wanna give odds on how bad this week will turn out for Deeds?