Public Policy Polling is showing a statistical tie in the Democratic primary for Governor but the momentum is very much in Creigh Deeds’s favor:
Over the last month he has gone from 14% to 20% to 27% in the polls while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 29% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place, polling twice at 20% and now up to 22%.
PPP cites two big events that changed these numbers: WaPo endorsement of Deeds and Moran finally getting on the air in Hampton Roads and Richmond. Not mentioned is Gov. Doug Wilder’s statement on McAuliffe late last week:
Wilder, who has been in his share of intra-party spats over the years and has not endorsed in this contest, warned that, “If McAuliffe gets the nomination, there will be a formation of Virginians For McDonnell,” a coalition of Democrats and establishment-oriented independents for the GOP nominee.
Wilder’s thoughts may offset McAuliffe’s recent endorsement by the Richmond Free Press, Virginia’s largest African-American newspaper.
Deeds has been running a dark horse campaign for some time now, allowing Moran and McAuliffe to beat each other up while he sat on his cash and quietly made a case for himself. Now in the final stretch he’s better positioned than Brian Moran to play himself off against Terry McAuliffe and set himself in the mold of the ever popular Mark Warner. Whether his momentum holds and carries him through June 9th we’ll see in a week, but things are falling into place for Deeds just as the other campaigns are struggling or stagnent.