While the media breathlessly report that the “models” are pointing to a Murphy victory, Rittinger at Virtucon brings us some ground-truth [1].
I spoke to a source close to the Tedisco campaign last night who told me that this report was utter nonsense for two reasons. First, because absentee voters tend to be the most ideologically committed voters and almost never stray from their party affiliation. The past three election cycles have revealed that such voters stray from their designated party less than 5% of the time….Second, overseas military ballots will continue to be accepted and counted until April 13. Based on requests, there should be something like 300 overseas military ballots. Even in the diasterous years of 2006 and 2008, these ballots broke 4 to 1 for Republicans.
Murphy currently leads Tedisco by a mere 13 votes.