Trump’s Dead Cat Bounce
No small secret that every candidate gets a bounce post-convention. Donald Trump got a bit of a bounce… to Hillary +1 according to the most Trump-friendly pollster, Rassmussen:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton with 43% support to Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 42%. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided.
This is a reversal from last week when Trump had an equally insignificant 43% to 42% lead. This is, however, the first time Clinton has edged ahead of Trump in a month. The race has been neck-and-neck in Rasmussen Reports surveying since last October.
Of course, Trumpsheviks will immediately point towards a bevy of Trump leads demonstrating anywhere from a five to twelve point swing in the Real Clear Politics aggregator.
Here’s the problem: what these polls are doing is optimizing for a best-case Trump scenario. Quite literally, they are changing their methodology for a “best case” scenario… and even then, Trump only manages to eke out a 0.9% lead.
There are more problems here. If you scroll down, you’ll notice that one pollster consistently puts Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton — Rassmussen. Not just one pollster, but only one pollster. For a better graphical representation of the post-convention afterglow? Check this out.
You’ll notice that Trump only picked up steam after July 01 (and in the wake of the Clinton e-mail scandal). Clinton’s drop? Two points. Trump’s rise? Three points.
In short, your standard 5 point swing in any convention atmosphere.
What to expect over the next two weeks? Probably a return to “normal” in the polls and a five point swing for Hillary — in effect, anywhere from a 5-7 point lead by mid-August and a press crooning that the election is over.
…then again, any poll that doesn’t show Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson in it? Proabably isn’t worth its salt. With Johnson/Weld in the 13% range when polled, if the contest goes as nasty and negative as it seems to be careening towards now? Expect more of an upswing for the Libertarian nod in the wake of what is already proving to be a savage election season.
