Winners and Losers: 2016 June Primaries
Goodlatte. Wade. Forbes. Taylor.
Given the mood of the Republican electorate, the rise of Trump, and the notion that every challenger can duplicate the Cantor-Brat race, this was a bit of a test across Virginia. Could it be duplicated? Was it a one-off?
Moreover, would the shift in judicially-appointed seats pay off in a round of unelectable candidates?
The answer this morning is a resounding “no” — as Republican primary voters have not only sent the best selections on the table, but have united around the candidate carrying the battle standards in each district.
On to the Winners and Losers:
WINNERS:
Delegate Scott Taylor: No one — and I mean no one — predicted this. Before folks wander off bemoaning how Forbes could have lost to this guy, let me tell you about Scott Taylor. Cocky? Confident? Yes — Navy SEALs tend to be… but there’s a humility and service (and clearly, a teflon) within this guy that lends him the serious potential to be better than good… Taylor has the elements to be great. It really depends on who he surrounds himself with. If it’s a party and “raucus caucus” set? Then you’ll get a several-term congressman who does very well for his district but not much else. On the other hand… if you see the best and brightest staffing up around Taylor? Buckle up… because not since George Allen have you seen a guy with this much future. The Dems are going to savage Taylor in the next few months as a result… but if Taylor prevails? We have a leader here.
Sheriff Mike Wade: Mike Wade alternated between the western and eastern halves of Henrico County. Challenge Dave Brat? Or run for the open seat in VA-04? Wade decided to go where he thought he could do the most good… and given his opposition in Don McEachin (D-Ashley Madison, two accounts) one suspects that a lawman with 20+ years of service and deep interest and involvement in public safety, enforcing immigration laws, and counter-terrorism at the local level in the wake of Orlando is precisely the sort of representative VA-04 should send to Washington. Plus, there’s an approachability factor in Wade that is second to none.
Representative Bob Goodlatte: Challenges to Goodlatte are like watching ping-pong balls thrown at a tank. There’s dissatisfaction at the State Central level (Sixth District most of all), but when taken to the people? Goodlatte is practically invincible.
Jackie Gonzalez: The only thing that prevents this from going to the push category? I know Jackie Gonzalez… and in ordinary circumstances, she would have never gone for the Hail Mary throw regarding amnesty — a plan that ironically enough not only offers zero amnesty whatsoever, she and Wade both shared, agreed upon, and appreciated during debates. That having been said, one silly and utterly false campaign tactic towards the very end of the campaign shouldn’t mar one’s reputation — shame on the folks who played the card. Gonzalez is a rising star in the Republican Party, and it would not shock me in the slightest if we found her (and voices like hers) in Republican leadership very soon.
The Stolle Family: I believe the mafia now.
State Senator Frank Wagner: …and Don Wagner? If you want to win in Virginia Beach, you kiss the ring.
PUSH:
Representative Randy Forbes: Let’s be honest about this one. Forbes was pushed into this race — no question. It was a dirty hand and he was forced to play it. The Congressional Prayer Caucus lost one of its founding members today, which means that Forbes will now have to go back and reconsider options regarding this political career. How ironic would it be if Forbes rose back up and chose to run for governor in 2017? Given a packed field… who knows…
LOSERS:
Donald J. Trump: Now before you roll your eyes, hear me out — there are effectively “two Virginias” at play here: eastern Virginia and western Virginia (EEVA vs. WEVA in Kenney Brothers parlance), or the “Golden Cresent” vs. the rest of the Commonwealth. Trump plays well in the parts of Virginia that aren’t doing well in the new economy: the 9th, 5th, 4th, 6th, and 7th. Get to Northern Virginia, parts around Fredericksburg and Richmond, then head towards Hampton Roads? Different story. Here’s the point: in areas and demographics where Trump does well, Trump boosters were not heard from that day. Cardwell went down hard in VA-02. Gonzalez went down hard in VA-04 (though Wade is perhaps sympathetic to the spirit of the times — which makes him a uniquely suited candidate in VA-04). Goodlatte not only trounced the opposition but earned the support of Trump’s Mini-Me — Dave Brat. Trump’s numbers in the eastern part of Virginia — you know, where all the people and money are? — are abysmal. This was not a good day for Trumpster Diving.
Hillary Rodham Clinton: Oh, and this was not a good day for her either. If there was to be a tidal wave of Republican infighting at any level beneath the national one, here was the opportunity… and it wasn’t. Also, we hear that pantsuits come in bright, prison orange (perhaps made by Armani).
