Morning After Talking Points: Virginia Congressional Primaries

So, having a chance to get a few hours of sleep and reflect on things a short while, here are some quick points to ponder this morning:

1) First, a statement from Susan Swecker, chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Virginia:

“The new Congressional boundaries represent a historic step forward in ending the injustice that racial gerrymandering inflicts upon those whose voices it silences. With the new boundaries, Democrats are heavily favored to double Virginia’s African American members – which will grant Virginia voters stronger representation in Congress.”

* Okay, she has a point. The representation of African Americans in the House of Representatives of a delegation of 11 is 1: Bobby Scott. According to the census, the African American population in Virginia is about 20%. Ergo, having 2 black congressman among the 11 seems accurate, if skin color is important to you.
*But let’s think about reality: we have two Democratic senators – both white. We have two other Democratic congressman from Alexandria and Northern Virginia – both white.
* It took a professor from California to make a district more than 43% black (the 4th) in order to get another black congressman (in other words, they had to more than double the actual African American population to attempt to get another black congressman).
* This has nothing to do with “injustice.” In 2010, the congressional districts were solid and approved by a bipartisan legislature and signed by the governor. At that time, they were considered in compliance with the Voting Rights Act. What happened here was a complete political maneuver by the Democratic party to try and pick up another seat.

Racial gerrymandering? You bet. But not the way DPVA would have you believe.

2) Rep. J. Randy Forbes was a casualty of the Democrats playing identity politics, but also anti-incumbency.

* Given point one, it was going to be very challenging for Forbes to win in the new 4th
* In order to retain seniority in the House Armed Service Committee, Forbes had to run in the 2nd – and did so at the urging of the incumbent, Rep. Scott Rigell
* Forbes, even as fiscally disciplined as he was, was not able to overcome an anti-incumbency mood in Virginia Beach. Most of the “throw the bums out” fervor seems to be coming from the oceanfront. Which leads to…

3) Taylor better backtrack his carpetbagger comments really quick

* South Hampton Roads is a community of interest. The only reason Virginia Beach can even contemplate a sports arena is because of the money and population that exists in Chesapeake and Suffolk. If we’re considered “hicks from the sticks” – screw you, your beach, your entertainment and your light rail.
* South Hampton Roads is a community of interest. I know we want to make ourselves less dependent on federal dollars, but this is an awfully funky way of doing it. Hampton Roads goes from being, effectively, on-deck for having chairmanship of the HASC to a back-bencher.
* Rep. Bobby Scott and Rep. Rob Wittman (chairman on the HASC Readiness subcommittee) need to prevent a disaster for this region. Florida congressmen are salivating over an aircraft carrier, while Naval Air Station Oceana is probably on the Base Realignment and Closure list, should another round be called for (Lynnhaven Mall still is in the flight path and there’s still no Outlying Landing Field, beyond Fentress, which is also under encroachment). That’s going to be some tough sledding for a freshman congressman.

4) The 4th is now a Richmond-centric district

* Dr. Ella Ward is a pretty popular Democratic city councilwoman in Chesapeake. She got smoked by Senator Donald McEachin of Henrico.
* Both Republicans running in the new 4th were from the Richmond-area.

5) To beat an incumbent, run a strong candidate

* There was little doubt Rep. Bob Goodlatte was going to win.
* Taylor could win the argument v. Forbes because he is an elected official, a veteran, and could capture anti-Washington fervor and portray Forbes as part of the problem due to the “where do you live” argument. In other words, Taylor could combine experience with message.

6) Democrats won’t make the same mistake twice

* Shaun Brown is running in the 2nd District. “Who?” you might ask. Exactly. This gives Taylor the advantage in a district that voted, barely, for Romney in 2012
* Democrats will run a candidate in the mold of Owen Pickett in 2018. Get ready, Mr. Taylor.

Final estimate: score a big victory for identity politics.

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