Has Remain Lost the Plot?
This is the sixth installment of my continuing yet irregular series on the British referendum to Leave or Remain in the European Union. Here are the first five posts I wrote. The referendum will be held on 23 June.
With 12 days to go, the wheels are starting to come off the Remain campaign, although there is still plenty of time for them to right the ship.
Yesterday began with news that the government – well, the piece of the government that supports Remain, as the Prime Minister does – has decided to whack Boris Johnson (the former Mayor of London and a leading spokesman for Leave). James Forsyth best explains why that’s not a good idea (Coffee House).
First, it makes Boris, the most popular politician in the country, the face of the Out campaign when the IN campaign’s strategic aim is to make voters think that Nigel Farage embodies the Out case. Second, it means that the whole referendum is seen through the prism of the Tory leadership. This is not only bad for Tory party unity post-referendum, but also makes it harder for IN campaign to get the support of Labour party voters as it drowns out Labour’s own message.
Meanwhile, a new poll from ORB gave Leave a 10-point lead among likely voters. More importantly, the poll revealed how badly wrong that strategy is.
Of course, there are caveats with this poll: it’s online-only, which traditionally favors Leave relatively. As a sign that it may favor Leave a bit too much, the poll has Wales backing Leave 55-45. That’s. Not. Happening. Unless 44% of Plaid Cymru voters really do want to Leave (hint: they don’t).
Still, there are clear signs where the Remain vote needs shoring up: Labour voters. Only 56% of Labour voters polled are for Remain. This explains why Leave does so well in Northern England.
It also explains why going after Boris is a bad idea. For one thing, Boris is one of the few Tories known to win over Labour voters (it’s how he was elected Mayor of London, twice). Hitting him is just another reminder that he’s not a Cameron-type Tory, which will only help Labour Leavers. It also ignores Remain’s problem in Labour heartlands, which was reinforced when John Mann (Labour MP) announced he will also vote Leave (BBC).
But Mr Mann told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s not that Labour’s not getting its message across to Labour voters, it’s that Labour voters are fundamentally disagreeing on this issue.”
He said he had tried putting the case for and against in public meetings but had “found it impossible to argue the case for because the EU’s fundamentally broken, it’s undemocratic and even when you want to get changes – as David Cameron tried – you can’t get them”.
Mann even went so far as to praise Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn for his half-hearted statements about the issue: “Jeremy Corbyn is far more in touch on this issue than [former leader] Ed Miliband – hence he’s been more equivocal in some of the things he has said.”
Simply put, Remain has a Labour problem, much akin to the Labour problem the Unionist side had in the Scottish referendum of 2014. Labour voters were supposed to be the unassailable redoubt for the Union in that vote. Instead, Labour leaders were too busy trying to have it both ways – support the Union and bash the government – leading much of their supporters to desert to the SNP and Yes. Labour is still feeling the pain in Scotland today (now in third place behind the SNP and the more devoutly pro-Union Conservatives).
Labour was also supposed to be the savior for Remain, what with the Tory rank-and-file leaning heavily towards Leave and the Liberal Democrat/Green/SNP phalanx for Remain matched by UKIP. Labour voters aren’t playing ball.
Of course, there is still plenty of time for Remain to recover, or for the second-look effect to erode Leave’s support. The polls could also be overhyping Leave’s standing (see Wales and the PC numbers). However, if this keeps up on the Remain side, than Brexit could be the favorite before long.
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